Compared with the decline, the rise makes me want to speak more. Generally, when the market falls sharply, more people tremble, and fewer people take the knife. Even if they take the knife, in the long run, it is much better than chasing the rise. I have been in Beijing for a long time. In order to relax, I put all the authorized devices related to trading at home. I haven't watched the market much. The market is also quite boring. It has been rushing up in the past two days. In this case, I will just write about it casually.
First of all, in the previous range of 29-31, it fluctuated for a long time, and a huge amount of long orders were accumulated. After 29 was broken, the daily level accelerated to fall 4k points to 24900. This position is very important for the long army. Once it is broken, it will go to 2w. Will 25 be broken? Not to say for sure, just say 99%, after all, trading requires rigor. As mentioned earlier, the end of the bull market will not fall too fast. After all, there is still some time before the halving, and there is a high probability that it will fluctuate downward. Secondly, it is to lure more. Large-scale spot lure more is also paving the way for the next round of halving waterfall. I will focus on this. As mentioned earlier, there are a lot of long orders in the range of 29-31, and then it fell to 24900. At this point, the leverage (bullish) is almost cleared. However, the key position of the spot in this range is near 25. You can see that the bottoming low of 6.15 is 248, and the low point of the previous period is 249, which is enough to illustrate the importance of this position, the support point of 3-day k and weekly k. Ok, as of now, the short-term low of 249 has been formed. If it continues to fluctuate upward, those who are trapped at 29-31 are likely to gradually increase their positions and pull down the average price. Now, many people have already seen the previous high, including those who were trapped before and those who missed this wave of bulls. Now use the simplest logic to look at the cycle, and the process from this wave of bulls to the start of the halving market. There is no doubt that the market is being washed out. How to wash it? This will definitely not be as most people think. If you ask me, I don’t know. We can reverse the market situation: first assume that 15 is the low point of this round of bear market, and until the bull market starts, the big cake will not break 20 and 25. Is this possibility big? Not very realistic. As mentioned earlier, there are a lot of trapped chips at 29-31, and then the important support of 25-27 has been horizontal for a long time. For those who are optimistic about the subsequent market, 25-27 is the most perfect bottom. Then these two days broke through this range, and they will be more determined in their inner thoughts: the bull market has started. In this case, if Bitcoin reaches 30,000, they will not run away, but will most likely continue to increase their positions. In this case, the bull market cannot start.
Some people may want to say, since you think so, then others will not think so? Yes, a few people will. Only a very few people among the minority will integrate knowledge and action. Otherwise, the familiar trading taboo of "chasing up and killing down" will not be touched by so many people. Focusing on the 3w position, it is currently 28300. If it slowly fluctuates upward later, the timing will be perfect after the new year. If it can stabilize at this time, when the time for halving is getting closer and closer, there will be a group of people who think that it is about to be halved, and the pie has not fallen yet, and it will be too late if they don't buy it. In this case, when most people are fully invested and waiting for the halving bull market to come, the dealer is very likely to, or must, have a black swan event in order to clean up the leverage, resulting in a short-term halving-style plunge. It reminds me of the bull market from December 2019 to February 2020. At that time, the Bitcoin halving in May was getting closer and closer. Many people took out loans to buy Bitcoin. In February, Bitcoin broke 10,000 dollars, and the bull market high was only 190,000. At this time, there were still 3 months before the halving. The market was applauding, and then 312, a sharp drop of 60%. What leverage can't kill? Some people will think that I am not afraid of spot. Take now for example, if your average price is 25, no matter how Bitcoin falls later, as long as you don't sell, you will not lose money in spot. Speaking of this, we have to go back to the unity of knowledge and action. If your average price of 25 falls to 20, you will see 1.8 or 1.5. Then will you think: I sold it at 20 and bought it back at 18. Although it is a temporary loss, the currency will become more at that time. In this case, will you take it? If you take it, 20 is the bottom, and the bull market will start later, and you, the pawn. No, it's 18, 15, others are all-in at 18, 15, the bull market starts and the market returns to 25, others have made a profit of dozens of points, and you just got your money back, don't you feel uncomfortable? What I said is still simple, trading is an emotional game, the actual situation, your heart may be much more complicated at that time. In addition, don't think that everyone is not selling, who will the dealer smash the market to clean? Let's not talk about whether everyone can resist and not sell. Let's take a step back. The current currency circle itself is a leverage game. The leveraged trading volume of contracts is much larger than that of spot. You have no problem holding on to spot. The dealer's pull and smash are mainly aimed at leverage. For example, at the end of the bull market, there were too many short sellers, so the sky needle peaked, which is the so-called bubble. The closer to the end of the bull market, the more violent the pull. In some aspects, the air force is also a booster for the bull market.The same is true in a bear market. If the leverage is not cleaned up for you, it will not work. It doesn't matter if you hold the spot. After all, it is insignificant to the contract position. Therefore, the big drop before the bull market is not for the spot, but for the contract. Old leeks can more or less understand the principle, and some people can hold on to the spot. The banker may not be able to cut you or scare you away. But you have to know that there are more new leeks who know nothing about the cycle. Trading, if you say it is simple, it can indeed be explained in a few words. If you say it is complicated, any aspect can't be explained in three days and three nights. Again, overall, the way is simple. Simplicity is suitable for most people, and complexity is beneficial to the banker. Trading is buying and selling, nothing more. As for opening a position, continue to wait.
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