PANews reported on August 24 that according to Jinshi, CICC commented on the speech made by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Conference:
1. It is basically clear that the interest rate cut in September is a done deal, which is in line with expectations. CME interest rate futures price in a 76% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September and a 24% probability of a 50bp rate cut.
2. The Federal Reserve shifted its focus from prices to employment, and basically declared victory in the fight against inflation (saying that inflation expectations have been well anchored), and assessed that the job market is no longer overheated, is balanced, and that risks are rising.
3. No mention of how much the interest rate will be cut in the future. It still depends on the data. A 50bp rate cut is not realistic at the moment. We have to wait for the non-farm data next month. Powell also does not think that the rising unemployment rate is a sign of a worsening job market. He believes that it is mainly due to more people entering the labor market and a slowdown in hiring. His attitude towards the job market is to observe and be vigilant.
