Powell's reasons for signaling a rate cut are mainly as follows:
• Easing inflation pressure: The U.S. inflation rate is steadily falling back to the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's inflation rate indicator shows that the inflation rate has gradually declined from previous high levels, such as the peak of more than 7% in June 2022, to the recent 2.5%, lower than 3.2% a year ago. The reduction in inflationary pressure provides room for monetary policy adjustments, making rate cuts a possible policy option.
• Changes in the labor market: Although the U.S. unemployment rate recently reached 4.3%, triggering the "Sam's Law" that foreshadows an impending recession, Powell believes that the rise in unemployment is due to more people entering the labor market and slower hiring, rather than increased layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market. And the labor market has cooled significantly from its previous overheated state. Powell said he does not want or welcome a further cooling of labor market conditions, which means that the downside risk of employment has increased, and monetary policy adjustments are needed to avoid a sharp rise in unemployment in order to achieve the Fed's goal of maintaining a strong labor market.