Several data points about Polymarketđ»
The transaction volume and pool size of the protocol are strongly correlated with the US election. Figure 1 shows the monthly transaction situation. In the cited article, I have calculated that the pool size of the election activity accounts for more than 94% of the entire platform pool size
And in Figure 2, we can see that the proportion of users betting on election activities on the platform has reached 68%
Then the corresponding extensionđ»
1. After the election narrative ends, how will the platform maintain this active user group? (The latest daily active data is nearly 9k)
2. In the four months with the fastest growth, the average monthly new users are 43,000. This data trend occurred after the latest round of financing activities
So after the election narrative is over, it is difficult to imagine any new real activities to promote the continuation of the trend of incremental users
It seems that there is only one way to go: potential airdrop activities, continue PUA to create protocol profits
3. In this way, whether or not the currency will be issued in the end, the income and profit of the protocol itself can be basically guaranteed. If you choose not to issue the currency, the final result will basically be the same as Opensea
However, one thing that PolyMarket is better than Opensea is that it can continue to jump out in the next round of elections
4. In fact, the founder has answered the question of how to maintain the transaction volume in an interview before, but I think it is actually avoiding this issue from the side
(I donât think it is a good solution to distribute the opening pool, because countless DEXs in this market do this)
If the other party does not take the second approach, another [former giant, todayâs Opensea] may be born
5. From the proportion of users participating in election betting and the final scale, it can be concluded that about 60% of the platformâs users maintain 94% of the platformâs betting scale, and this 94% scale will also be reset with the arrival of the election event results
I think this kind of business model driven by âcoin tossingâ must be driven by some kind of event attention, not just zero-sum. If it is just zero-sum, then it will be like the launch of Pump, which has no differentiation
Thank you for reading, welcome to communicateđđ»
