🚨🚨🚨I personally think that Powell is unlikely to make a dovish speech tonight, because it would be too dovish, and going too far actually signals potential risks.
Therefore, the best strategy is to emphasize the resilience of the US economy, the stability of the job market, and the good control of inflation. Then, he may mention the interest rate cut in September. This is a defensive move. Although there is no benefit in the short term, it can greatly reduce the volatility of the financial market when the first interest rate cut occurs. I think this is the mildest and safest way.
As for hawkish remarks, I think it is unlikely. Because the employment data has fallen a lot, this shows that the reason the Fed has always said that it would not cut interest rates is false, and the employment situation is not that good.
Now that this "lie" has been exposed, there is no reason not to cut interest rates. However, we cannot be too optimistic about cutting interest rates. The best way is to talk about the possibility of a soft landing of the US economy, and then announce a rate cut in early September, and remain silent on whether there will be a rate cut in November and December.
