【Analysis of the big trends】
On Wednesday, the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that most officials on the Federal Reserve Board favored a rate cut in September if inflation continues to cool.
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The minutes showed that at the July meeting, a “vast majority” of policymakers “believed that if data continued to move in line with expectations, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” They also noted that “many” Fed officials viewed the stance of interest rates as restrictive and that “some participants” believed that, with inflation pressures continuing to cool, an unchanged rate would mean that monetary policy would increase the drag on economic activity.
The minutes boosted sentiment, with traders betting the first rate cut will come in less than 28 days (the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 18). The debate now centers on the size of the first rate cut, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 64% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 36% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also boosted hopes for a rate cut. In the 12 months ending in March, nonfarm payrolls are likely to fall by 818,000, or about 68,000 per month. In addition to the total number, the report revised the employment level by 0.5%, the largest since 2009. The final revised data will be released early next year, but it suggests that the cooling of the labor market will take longer than most people think.
【Daytime analysis part】
BTC hit the end of the range resistance again yesterday and has now stabilized above the 60,000 mark, with a retracement during the day; this shows that the retracement short-term support is effective.
However, BTC has not broken through the key resistance level of 62,000 and has been fluctuating up and down repeatedly. Only when it breaks through will the opportunity truly come. In this case, it is better for us to wait and see.
Because the current adjustment situation is a bit complicated, we will wait for the next simpler opportunity to do it.
We eliminate opportunities that come with difficulty and don’t challenge those that are highly difficult!
We must be aware that we have no shortage of opportunities, but we are afraid that when the next good opportunity comes, we will be scared away by the market shock!
After more than ten days of range oscillation and adjustment, don’t be nervous after the breakthrough. At this stage, just wait for the key point breakthrough to prepare for the next opportunity; there is no need to worry about temporary gains or losses in the current market!
Outlook: Once BTC ends the range of 57,000-62,000, after breaking through, you can participate in the rising operation. The market is about to face accelerated rise, and the first resistance level is at 65,200.
Once the market breaks through, we must avoid going against the trend. We have always said that the longer the horizontal line is, the higher the vertical line is. Be more patient and don't move until it breaks.
【Counterfeit spot recommendations】
ETH has performed relatively weakly during its recent range fluctuations, but it has not fallen below the key support of 2550. There will definitely be a rebound in the later period, but it also has to wait until BTC successfully breaks through the resistance level. At this stage, it still maintains the range.
ETH's short-term support level is 2550, and the pressure level is 2750. There is no change, so continue to follow the previous strategy.
The compensatory gains of some altcoins have surpassed the overall market. Today, due to the stimulus of news, many altcoins have broken through the short-term resistance level, such as: LINK, FTM, ORDI. The performance of some altcoins also indicates that the compensatory gains of altcoins have not ended, and the short-term altcoin layout should continue to be maintained.
