There was no reaction to the revision of non-farm data, so continue to pay attention to the most critical meeting in the world on Friday! ——
Yesterday's non-farm data was revised down sharply by 81.8w, and the market was relatively calm, which is not surprising:
First, the market has already priced in a sharp downward revision of non-farm data;
Second, the statistical time of the data has a lag;
Third, the weak labor market will only increase the possibility of the Fed's active interest rate cuts.
Once this data comes out, it looks like a prelude to a rate cut. Then we must continue to pay attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday, and the most important thing to pay attention to is the keynote speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 10 pm on August 23.
The timing of this annual meeting is quite special. On the one hand, the global market has just experienced a big rebound after a sharp drop. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is at a policy crossroads where it is about to start cutting interest rates.
Given Powell's personality, this speech should still be Tai Chi, and he will definitely not give a clear statement on the timing and magnitude of the rate cut. According to the data, it is likely to be dovish.
It may be similar to the past few weeks, sending out signals of "confidence in rate cuts" + "data dependence", that is, the Fed is now close to cutting interest rates, but the degree of easing will depend on the upcoming data.
In addition, he may reveal more insights on the monetary policy route before the end of the year, which is crucial to the future direction of the market.
Some netizens said that the key to maintaining market sentiment is not Powell's remarks, but his tone. According to the previous rules-
If you start your speech with hello everyone, it will soar;
If you start your speech with good morning, it will plummet;
If you have a dark face, you can buy without thinking.
You can wait and see!
It is estimated that the interest rate cut in September is not going to run, but the Fed should still repeat the mistakes of the early stage of the interest rate hike. It wants a soft landing but it is difficult to grasp the strength, resulting in a slow response.
It is not that the Fed's level of expectation management is not good, but the nature of the bureaucracy determines that the policy is destined to be patched only when problems arise.
So if you want to see the magnificent situation of the surging tide in the currency circle, you probably have to wait a little longer!
