The number of leveraged positions in U.S. Treasury futures rose to an all-time high, reaching a record level of nearly 23 million 10-year Treasury futures, with about $1.5 billion at risk for every basis point change in the underlying cash bonds. Bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve hit a record high, with expectations that the Fed will begin its first rate cut in more than four years.
Back to the topic:
Terra announced that a date has been set for the confirmation hearing of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case of Terraform Labs Pte Ltd (TFL) and Terraform Labs Limited (TLL). The hearing will be held on September 19, 2024. Bloomberg reported that Emomotimi Agama, Director General of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that the regulator plans to issue the first batch of digital service and tokenized asset licenses this month. CoinDesk reported that the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved the issuance of the second Solana ETF. The agency disclosed the news in its central database. The new Solana ETF is currently in the pre-operational stage. According to Ultrasound data, the net supply of ETH has increased by 16,565 in the past 7 days, of which the supply has increased by about 18,086 ETH and 1,521 ETH has been destroyed. The supply growth rate is currently 0.719% per year. According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $61,000, the cumulative short order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 921 million; if BTC falls below $58,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 781 million. According to ai_9684xtpa data, asset management company Galaxy Digital is suspected of increasing its holdings of 1,380 BTC in the past two days. State Street Bank selected Taurus to provide digital asset services. State Street Bank said that the initial focus is on launching tokenized versions of traditional assets. Lamine Brahimi, managing partner of Swiss Taurus, pointed out the advantages of tokenization, such as the ability to trade around the clock and optimize collateral management, while also echoing the need for the United States to improve the regulatory environment. According to Matrixport research, Trump has recently led Harris in some election polls, and his friendly stance on BTC may drive the crypto market to rebound. At the same time, the Nasdaq index has rebounded since the flash crash on August 5, and technology stocks have risen sharply, but the price of BTC has lagged behind. With Fed Chairman Powell about to give a speech this week, his dovish tone may help boost BTC and narrow the gap with Nasdaq. Bloomberg reported that K33 Research said that the BTC derivatives market shows that the risk of short squeeze is increasing, which may trigger a rebound in BTC, and indicators help measure speculators' long or short sentiment.
The seven-day average rate is the lowest since March 2023, indicating aggressive short selling, in which unexpected price jumps force fast traders to close short positions, further driving the price rebound. Sentiment in the BTC market has been sluggish recently. At the same time, global stock market indices have rebounded to record highs, and gold has also hit new highs. On August 21, the MtGox address sent 12,000 BTC and 1,264.69 BTC to new addresses. MtGox's official announcement stated that after multiple repayments in July 2024, according to the compensation plan, some creditors were repaid in BTC and BCH on August 21, 2024. As of now, MtGox has repaid more than 19,000 creditors. In July, MtGox sent 95,523 BTC (US$6.14 billion) to various addresses to compensate creditors. The MtGox address currently still holds about 45,000 BTC. On August 21, Tether issued an additional $1 billion in stablecoins. Within a week, Tether has issued an additional $3 billion in stablecoins. Since August 5, $3.22 billion in stablecoins have been sent from Tether to various platform addresses. CryptoQuant said that the total market value of stablecoins has hit a record high of $165 billion, and this growth usually indicates an increase in BTC and cryptocurrency prices. On August 20, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $87.6 million, achieving net inflows for 4 consecutive trading days. IBIT had a net inflow of $54.99 million, ARKB had a net inflow of $51.9 million; Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $12.8 million. The spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $6.7 million. Brokerage firm Bernstein reported that U.S.-listed BTC mining companies have significant advantages over their unlisted counterparts due to their ability to raise funds in the world's deepest capital markets, especially in capital-intensive industries. The report reiterated that with the increase in institutional adoption and the popularity of ETFs, BTC prices are expected to reach a new high of about $200,000 in 2025. Kyle Rodda, an analyst at CapitalCom Inc., said that a series of recent data eased concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth, while also not raising concerns about a re-acceleration of inflation. The S&P 500 took a breather after strengthening for the eighth consecutive day.
Fed's Bowman said there are upside risks to inflation, and if price growth continues to slow, it would be appropriate for the Fed to begin gradually lowering interest rates to prevent monetary policy from becoming too restrictive. The Governor of the Indonesian Central Bank said the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September, and the assessment of the US economy and the Fed's statement believes that the Fed has a 75% probability of cutting interest rates twice this year, by 25 basis points each time. The number of leveraged positions in U.S. Treasury futures rose to an all-time high, reaching a record level equivalent to nearly 23 million 10-year Treasury futures, with a risk of about $1.5 billion for each basis point change in the relevant cash bonds. Bets on Fed rate cuts hit a record high, with expectations that the Fed will begin its first rate cut in more than four years. The S&P 500 rose for the eighth consecutive day on Monday, the longest streak since November last year. Goldman Sachs said that the surge in momentum traders and corporate buybacks is expected to drive the U.S. stock market to continue to rise in the next four weeks. More cash will be allocated to stocks in the money market. Currently, the assets managed by the U.S. money market are about $7.3 trillion (Note: data from the U.S. Investment Company Association is $6.22 trillion). It said that the current positions and capital flows will become a tailwind because sellers have no "ammunition". U.S. money market funds are lying in the pool of the Federal Reserve to earn interest. The current yield of the average money market fund in the United States is 5.1%. After the interest rate cut, the interest rate will fall, and funds will flow out of the pool, mainly to the stock market and gold, and a few to the cryptocurrency market. Goldman Sachs believes that money market funds will help the stock market rise, and people in the cryptocurrency market also believe that this part of the funds will help the cryptocurrency market rebound. On Wednesday, the MtGox address sent 12,000 BTC and 1,264.69 BTC to other addresses to compensate creditors. Bitcoin has become numb to such negative information. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq rose 0.2% during the session, and Bitcoin rose 1.9%. Continue to wait for Bitcoin to get rid of the negative and warm up. #MtGox钱包动态 #新币挖矿DOGS #美联储何时降息？
