Yesterday's release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and the downwardly revised non-farm payrolls number convinced investors that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose. Bitcoin also stood at 61K, but Ethereum's trend was relatively weak as the Ethereum spot ETF continued to see no significant inflow of funds, and was trading at $2,631 at the time of writing.
Fed meeting minutes: Rate cut likely in September
According to CNBC, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting released yesterday showed that "the vast majority" of participants "observed that if data continued to be in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
Although all voters at the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, some officials favored starting to ease policy at the July meeting rather than waiting until September, arguing that recent inflation and unemployment rates Progress on the upside provided a legitimate rationale for lowering the target range by 25 basis points this meeting, or they could have supported such a decision. "Several" is a relatively small number, according to the term the Fed used in the minutes, which did not mention names or specify how many policymakers felt that way.
However, the summary made it clear that officials are confident in the direction of inflation and if the data continues to match, the Fed is ready to begin easing policy.
Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in a preliminary revision of nonfarm payrolls data from April 2023 to March 2024, the increase may have been overstated by more than 800,000. Total nonfarm payroll employment was revised down to 818,000, or 0.5%, the largest revision in 15 years, a dramatic change that highlighted concerns about the state of the job market. It also makes investors more confident about an interest rate cut in September.
Market Focus Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting
The Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Conference will be held for three consecutive days starting from Thursday (8/22). Central bank governors, scholars and economists from all over the world will gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s theme is "Reevaluating Monetary Policy" "Effectiveness and conductivity." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10 pm on 8/23 Taiwan time. The market expects this speech to lay the foundation for an interest rate cut in September.
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