The chances of a Solana ETF getting approved in the U.S. this year are “almost impossible,” barring a change in leadership at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
In an August 20 post on social media X, Balchunas said that the 19b-4 forms filed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) seeking approval for the Solana ETFs were never acknowledged by the SEC. As a result, Cboe withdrew the forms, although the S-1 forms filed by the issuers remain active.
It's important to note that 19b-4 filings are intended to provide the public with necessary information about any proposed rule changes, such as the listing of an ETF. Meanwhile, an S-1 filing is an SEC requirement that must be approved before an issuer can publicly offer new securities.
When asked further about the possibility of approval, Balchunas shared:
“Well, the chances are almost zero in 2024, and if Harris wins, the chances are almost zero in 2025. The only hope, I think, is if Trump wins.”
Solana ETFs Still Have Hope
Despite withdrawing the 19b-4 applications, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, said the company’s Solana spot ETF application is still under review.
VanEck and 21Shares filed for Solana spot ETFs in June, with Sigel saying at the time that it was a “gamble” based on the possibility of former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming election.
Sigel emphasized that VanEck views SOL as a digital commodity, not a security. He also added that Solana's decentralized structure, combined with its utility and economic role, puts it on par with digital commodities like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Sigel argues that Solana's potential to become a commodity is enough to justify it owning a U.S.-traded spot ETF.
