The market currently has too high expectations for rate cuts, and JPow's statement at Jason Hole will be crucial
1. My base case: It will be slightly more dovish than the July meeting:
There is greater confidence in inflation and a slight focus on growth. Pay attention to employment data and say that there are a lot of tools available at any time
This means that everyone's expectation of 50bps is gone, and there will be a maximum of 3 times this year if the data supports it
2. It may not be too soft or too hard, after all, there is still a month before the interest-bearing meeting. It is unwise to say that there is no room for maneuver
My judgment is still that inflation is controllable and the economy is soft. 2-3 times this year (depending on employment), 1% next year
Therefore, the market may be a little disappointed with Jason Hole, but the Fed's toolbox is still deterrent. There is no long-term bond issuance in August, and the 10-year bond has been bought at 3.8%. Therefore, even if there is an adjustment, it will not affect the general trend of stock market repair. After a rapid repair in 2 weeks, the stock market may fluctuate and then rise more slowly. It is still safe for the time being
If the market is weak and really wants to be disappointed with the Fed, it should be after the official rate cut in September. In addition, September is a big month for long-term bond issuance. Once disappointed, long-term interest rates will be more vulnerable. At that time, we need to pay more attention
Of course, if JPow's statement is very weak: seriously concerned about economic growth, or thinks that the current interest rate level is too high. Then it means that the market pricing is correct, and the rate will really be reduced by 50bps in September, and the rate will be reduced rapidly and continuously. Although I think it is a bit abstract, if it really happens, it means that the real bull market of liquid assets such as BTC is about to begin
