The market is worried that U.S. employment data may be significantly revised downwards, involving as many as millions of people. This news will undoubtedly raise questions about whether the employment statistics of the past year truly reflect the actual economic situation, and thus face a severe test of the basis of the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
Tomorrow, that is, at 22:00 on the evening of August 21, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the preliminary results of the non-farm employment and wage census in the first quarter of 2024. Before this critical moment, many authoritative forecasts have issued warnings: the upcoming data may It will reveal a significant adjustment in employment data from the previous year (April 2023 to March 2024), which is large enough to shake market confidence.
Goldman Sachs’ in-depth research report pointed out that this revision may trigger a downward adjustment of non-farm employment data by 600,000 to 1 million. This number is not only shocking, but also directly challenges the Federal Reserve’s previous policy judgment based on seemingly strong employment data. .
The Bloomberg Economics research team is also pessimistic. They estimate a downward revision of about 800,000, and specifically point out that the non-farm employment growth data in April and July this year may be sharply corrected, and may even be close to zero growth. The forecast undoubtedly casts a shadow over the true state of the U.S. job market.
If this prediction comes true, it means that the employment boom that exceeded market expectations in the past year is actually an illusion based on false data. The real situation of the U.S. job market is far more severe than officially announced. This is not only a major question about the health of the U.S. economy, but also indicates that the shadow of recession is quietly approaching.
In this context, the Federal Reserve may face unprecedented policy challenges. Faced with clear signals of economic recession, cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth and ease market pressure may become an option that they have to take. This change will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the global financial market, and investors need to pay close attention to subsequent developments to cope with possible market fluctuations.
