Source: Economic Calendar

This week, attention is on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who faces a new set of challenges at this year’s Jackson Hole meeting compared to last year. Given the recent encouraging inflation data, Powell may shift his focus from discussing potential interest rate cuts in September to addressing employment concerns. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will receive revised job growth figures, which may reveal that job growth from last year through early this year was weaker than previously estimated. Furthermore, next month’s non-farm payroll report, released at the start of the month, will be a crucial factor in shaping market sentiment and trends.

Source: Economic Calendar

Turning to digital currencies, prices have surged from recent lows over the past 24 hours. ETH settled at $2,674.87 (+2.2%), recovering all of yesterday’s losses. BTC has been even more favored by the market, breaking through the $60,000 threshold and nearing the $61,000 level, closing at $60,901.71 with a daily gain of +3.95%. Beyond the price movements, it’s worth noting that in recent days, BTC ETFs have seen consistent inflows, while ETH continues to face outflows due to selling pressure from Grayscale’s ETHE.

Source: Farside Investors

This market sentiment is also evident in the options market. Changes in Vol Skew indicate that BTC’s front-end risk reversal (RR) has significantly moved back into positive territory, while ETH’s front-end curve remains skewed toward put options.

Source: SignalPlus，Vol Skew

Over the past day, rising prices have caused a slight decrease in implied volatility (IV). BTC’s realized volatility (RV) of around 48% is largely in line with front-end IV, while ETH’s RV, at approximately 49%, is 5%-7% lower than its front-end IV. From the trading data, we see that the significant rise in BTC’s price and the normalization of the skew have led traders to sell call options, with the 29SEP-70000-C being a notable example. In the last 24 hours, 800 contracts were sold in a block trade on Deribit, and 938.8 contracts traded on the options chain, driving the 25d RR to a local low for that expiration. Additionally, the 30AUG expiration shows a clear “sell risky” pattern, with traders primarily selling calls at the 64,000 and 67,000 strikes while buying puts at the 55,000 strike.

Source: Deribit (as of 20AUG 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Data Source: SignalPlus, Deribit, BTC & ETH Trading Overall Distribution