According to the New York Fed’s July survey on labor market expectations, the proportion of respondents who are worried about losing their jobs in the next four months has increased from 3.9% last year to 4.4%, the proportion of people who expect to change jobs has increased to 11.6%, and the proportion of workers who have been looking for jobs in the past four weeks has increased to 28.4%... A series of indicators in the report have shown cracks in the labor market! This is undoubtedly a worrying phenomenon. Although the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still relatively low and last week’s retail data performed well, economists continue to issue warnings, pointing out that when the economy is at a turning point, the slowdown in the labor market is often relatively early, and the economic growth data cools down afterwards. This week, the focus of the market is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who will face a completely different dilemma at the Jackson Hole meeting than the previous year. Considering the recent gratifying inflation data, Powell may remind everyone to pay more attention to employment issues than predicting how much interest rates will be cut in September. The Federal Reserve will receive a revised job growth data on Wednesday, which may show that job growth from last year to the beginning of this year is weaker than before. In addition, the non-farm data at the beginning of next month will inevitably be the focus of attention in determining market sentiment and trends.
Source: Economic Calendar
Back to the digital currency, the price of the currency has been rising from the bottom in the past 24 hours. ETH completed delivery at 2674.87 (+ 2.2%), recovering all the lost ground yesterday. BTC is more favored by the market, breaking through the 6W USD pivot point and challenging the 61000 mark, closing at 60901.71, with a daily increase of + 3.95%. In addition to the comparison of currency prices, we can see that in the past few days, BTC ETF has continued to have positive inflows, while ETH is still outflowing funds under the shadow of Grayscale ETHE's selling pressure.
Source: Farside Investors
Such market sentiment is also reflected in the options market. From the changes in Vol Skew, we can see that the RR at the front end of BTC has risen sharply and returned to the positive range, while the curve at the front end of ETH is still tilted towards the put option.
Source: SignalPlus，Vol Skew
From the overall level of implied volatility, the price increase has led to a slight decline in IV over the past day. BTC's intraday Realized Vol of ~48% is basically the same as the previous IV, and ETH's RV is about 49%, which is slightly lower than the previous IV by about 5%-7%. From the transaction, we can see that the sharp rise in BTC price and the return of Skew have attracted traders to sell call options, represented by 29 SEP-70000-C. In the past 24 hours, Deribit sold 800 contracts in bulk, and 938.8 contracts were sold on the option chain, making 25 dRR form a local low on this expiration date; at the same time, 30 aug also showed obvious Sell Risky Flow, with most transactions concentrated on selling 64,000-67,000 Calls vs buying 55,000 Puts.
Source: Deribit (as of 20 AUG 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: SignalPlus, Deribit, BTC ETH transaction overall distribution
You can use the SignalPlus trading vane function at t.signalplus.com to get more real-time crypto information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlusCN, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com
