Bitcoin (BTC) has seen significant movements in recent days. Bitcoin, which gained 4.3% between August 16 and August 18, has given back this gain by failing to maintain $60,000 levels. While S&P 500 index futures and gold approached all-time highs on August 19, Bitcoin's price fell to $58,500. This shows that price movements are only related to cryptocurrencies. However, it would be premature to explain Bitcoin's recent performance with a single event; because the price struggled to close above $63,000 in August.
Analysts say that the unwinding of carry trades due to rising interest rates in Japan played a significant role in Bitcoin's weakening. In addition, global recession risks and the profitability of Bitcoin miners are among the other factors that suppress the price. It is important to evaluate the effects of these elements on the Bitcoin price and determine how long the $63,000 level will last.
Renaissance Macro Research highlighted that the appreciation of the Japanese yen since mid-July has contributed to the weakness in Bitcoin and cyclical stocks. The 12% appreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has caused volatility in the markets. However, Japan’s GDP growth of 3.1% annually in the second quarter seems to have started to offset the effects of this issue.
Regardless of the impact of the Japanese carry trade on risk markets, Bitcoin investors are also affected by global socio-economic expectations. For example, when perceptions of recession and layoffs increase, investors may reduce their crypto investments, while investors looking for economic flexibility tend to turn to stocks.
Goldman Sachs downgraded the probability of a recession from 25% to 20% after the jobless claims and retail sales data in the U.S. Goldman’s chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 0.25% in September and that a 0.50% cut is also possible.
The U.S. Treasury and the People’s Bank of China signed a financial stability agreement on Aug. 19 that has raised the Fed’s chances of a soft landing. The collaboration covers capital markets, cross-border payments and assessing financial risks, boosting investor confidence and easing fears of a stock market crash.
Another factor contributing to the weakness in Bitcoin’s price is the decrease in demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs and the decrease in profitability of miners. According to Farside Investors, outflows from spot ETFs reflect waning institutional investor interest; $372 million in outflows from these products occurred in the two weeks ending August 16. Inflows into spot ETFs have typically been a major driver of Bitcoin price gains.
There are also concerns about the profitability of Bitcoin miners. Due to high energy costs, miners may be forced to sell their Bitcoin reserves. According to Glassnode data, miners’ balances have remained stable at 1.80 million BTC. The hashprice index has fallen significantly since the halving on April 19, falling to $43 per petahash per day. This suggests that miners’ profits are falling and that in the long run, less profitable miners may cease operations.
In summary, the weakness in Bitcoin's price is due to increased global economic confidence, decreased demand for spot Bitcoin ETF products, and concerns about some miners exiting the market. As long as these factors continue to have an impact, the probability of Bitcoin's price exceeding $63,000 in the short term may remain low.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Every investment move involves risk and it is important for readers to do their own research.
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