Economists’ views on the interest rate cuts expected by the FED by the end of 2024 are beginning to become clear. A recent survey revealed economists’ estimates of the FED’s interest rate cut plans. Here are economists’ expectations and the markets’ reactions to these estimates:

Economists' Fed Rate Expectations: Three Quarter Point Cut

Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of three quarter-points before the end of 2024, according to a Reuters poll. The forecast represents a more aggressive approach than previous projections. Most economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each at its remaining meetings of the year. The forecasts were shaped by a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. Interest rate futures traders had initially expected a total of 120 basis points of cuts through 2024, but that expectation has been scaled back to 100 basis points.

Market Fluctuations and Interest Rate Cuts

Market dynamics also influenced economists’ forecasts. The sudden appreciation of the Japanese yen led to the unwinding of large leveraged positions and a sell-off in the markets. This contributed to the emergence of more aggressive expectations for a Fed rate cut. Some Fed officials say that rate cuts are imminent. However, most economists surveyed do not expect a rapid series of cuts. Strong retail sales data released last week suggest that the US economy is still robust.

What Do Economists Think?

Fifty-four percent of economists in the survey expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December. If those estimates come true, the federal rate would fall to a range of 4.50% to 4.75% by year-end. Market participants had priced in a 50 basis point cut in September, but now see a quarter point cut as more likely. Thirty-four economists in the survey expect two rate cuts this year, while only one economist predicts a single cut. Eleven also predict the Fed will cut rates by 100 basis points or more.

Powell's Speech and FED Interest Rate Forecasts

The speech to be given by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on August 23 will be closely watched by investors in traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets. Powell’s speech will directly affect the price movements of dollar-indexed investment instruments. Evercore ISI experts state that Powell may mention a 50 basis point interest rate cut in his speech. Experts expect Powell to reiterate his confidence in inflation targets and signal that interest rate cuts could begin in September at the earliest. However, Powell is not expected to give a clear direction on whether the first interest rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. The different assessments of economists and markets regarding the FED’s interest rate cut expectations may lead to important developments in the economy and finance world in the coming period.

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