Daily Summary:

  • Wall Street bets on rate cuts, crypto market inflows are poor

According to Farside Investor data, the overall inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs last week was approximately US$30 million, of which BlackRock IBIT received US$70 million, a significant drop from July; Grayscale GBTC saw an outflow of nearly US$200 million.

Last week, the total outflow of Ethereum spot ETF was about 15 million US dollars. The overall trading volume of Ethereum ETF was small, and the inflow of funds was also small. The performance of ETH ETF was not as expected.

The Fed meeting minutes and weekly jobless claims will be released on Thursday, and Powell will speak on the economic outlook on Friday night.

Major macroeconomic events that may affect the crypto market this week include:

At 1:35 a.m. on Wednesday, August 21, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak.

At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, August 22, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

At 20:30 on August 22 (Thursday), the U.S. Department of Labor will release the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 17.

On Friday, August 23 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting.

Nearly $200 million worth of AVAX will be unlocked on August 20, accounting for 2.41% of the circulating supply

According to Token Unlocks data, 9 projects will unlock tokens this week, with a total of approximately $219 million. The large unlocks include:

Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 54.37 million tokens at 18:00 on August 19, accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$7.8 million;

Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 9.54 million tokens at 8:00 on August 20, accounting for 2.41% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$197 million;

SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 18.49 million tokens at 8:00 on August 22, accounting for 4.29% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$6.63 million;

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 14.89 million tokens at 15:00 on August 25, accounting for 0.82% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$4.44 million.

Wall Street is betting on a rate cut, but a lower-than-expected rate cut could trigger negative sentiment

According to market data, Wall Street is betting that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will confirm that the Fed is about to cut interest rates at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. But as the focus shifts from "whether there will be a rate cut" to "how much the rate cut will be," stock traders may be disappointed.

“If traders hear that rate cuts are coming, the stock market will react positively,” said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners Global Advisory. “If they don’t hear what they want, it will trigger a massive sell-off.” The market fully expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates at its September meeting. But Powell could easily remain tight-lipped about the timing of rate cuts when he speaks on Friday. True to his character, he is also likely to take a cautious, vague approach to revealing how much interest rates may fall after the Fed is done easing. “The market is confident that rate cuts will be coming soon,” Beiley said. It would be a big surprise if Powell didn’t emphasize that this is the path forward.

Market analysis: BTC fluctuates in a narrow range, while the market monster coin RARE has increased by more than 500% in two weeks

Market Trends

BTC: It fluctuated in a narrow range around $60,000 over the weekend and remained in a downward trend. The overall ETF inflow last week was only $30 million, and the capital inflow was not good;

ETH: Also fluctuated in a narrow range between $2,600 and $2,700. Last week, ETH ETF funds had a net outflow of about $15 million.

Altcoins: There was a general slump, but some individual coins such as RARE performed very well.

Data indicators

  • Today's AHR999 index is 0.64, getting closer to the bottom-hunting range;

  • The Fear and Greed Index is 28, and market sentiment is expected to remain depressed.

Market Hotspots

RARE: SuperRare token RARE has risen by more than 500% in the past two weeks, and its current market value is $250 million. RARE is somewhat similar to TRB at the end of 2023. The spot price has been rising, but at the same time, the contract funding rate has been high, so it has shown a huge unilateral upward trend. The market is in a boring stage of sideways trading, and funds create hot spots to attract attention.

Ton Ecosystem: TON rose 10% over the weekend, leading the rise of the Ton Ecosystem Meme Token NOT. From the news perspective, TON's rise benefited from the upcoming listing on the top trading platform, as well as the expectations of the issuance of coins brought about by the popular mini-games Dogs and Hamster Kombat in the Ton Ecosystem.

Macroeconomics: The three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply last week as investors eased concerns about a market recession

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The S&P 500 index rose 0.20% to 5,554.25 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 40,659.76 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.21% to 17,631.72 points.

Last week, a series of economic and employment data released by the United States were better than expected, alleviating investors' concerns about the US economy falling into recession, boosting market risk appetite, and all three major US stock indexes rose cumulatively. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.94%, the largest weekly increase so far this year, the S&P 500 rose 3.93%, and the Nasdaq rose 5.29%. Both indexes recorded their largest weekly gains since November last year.

This week, as one of the most important central bank meetings in the world, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is scheduled to be held from August 22 to 24. At that time, central bank governors and economists from various economies, including the Federal Reserve, will gather together to discuss the most concerned topics of global economy and monetary policy. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is particularly concerned. Investors expect that Powell will release important monetary policy clues in his speech, paving the way for a rate cut in September. Whether Powell's speech will trigger fluctuations in the financial market is also worth paying attention to.

Summarize

Last week, the crypto market saw poor capital inflows, with BTC and ETH fluctuating in a narrow range. Despite the sluggish performance of the overall market, individual tokens such as RARE and TON Ecosystem performed well. The Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech to be released this week may have a significant impact on market trends. Investors need to pay close attention to macroeconomic events and token unlocking, and operate with caution to cope with possible market fluctuations.