If Kamala Harris wins the Oval, crypto could finally escape the current Democratic regulatory nightmare. But TD Cowen warns that a Kamala administration may not be all sunshine and rainbows for crypto.

Certainly, Kamala may be less hostile than Biden, who is like a dog with a bone, thanks to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and Senator Elizabeth Warren, both of whom appear to have made it their life’s mission to make it difficult for crypto.

Kamala, who has surged in the polls since entering the race, has yet to make a decision on cryptocurrency, leaving the industry hanging in the balance, unsure whether to hope for more of the same or start preparing for it.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has done a complete 180 on crypto. The guy who once called Bitcoin a scam is now all in, rubbing shoulders with the crypto crowd and even planning to appear at a major conference in Nashville.

But we should all know that just because Trump is crypto-friendly doesn't mean his second term will be any easier on the industry.

History shows that what a candidate says and what they actually do once in office are often far apart. As TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg puts it:

“Trump’s recent enthusiasm for crypto does not guarantee that his regulators will go easy on the industry if he wins.”

What Could Kamala's Approach to Cryptocurrency Be?

Seiberg added that

“Kamala will likely be more receptive to the industry and may advocate for policies that encourage its growth, but it’s hard to see her going against efforts to tighten crypto investor protections.”

That means the SEC’s grip on the industry isn’t likely to loosen anytime soon. The agency, under Gensler’s watch, has made a name for itself by regulating through enforcement rather than issuing clear guidelines.

And guess what? That probably won’t change much under Kamala. But let’s be honest, Trump or Kamala, the crypto industry could still be in trouble.

Both candidates could sign legislation on cryptocurrency market structure if Congress acts. However, Seiberg believes any bill Kamala signs would likely have tighter rules on investor protection.

However, the difference may not be big enough to matter. And passing any crypto legislation in an election year is a long shot.

The Battle for the Green Wall

While Kamala is pushing Trump to back down and trying to deliver a compelling message, the race is far from over. Both are battling hard to win over voters, especially in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—often referred to as the “Blue Wall.”

Democratic lawmakers in these states hope Kamala can win, but they are not deluding themselves about the uphill battle they face.

At 59, Kamala is nearly two decades younger than Trump, who is nearly 80, and would make history as the first female US president if she wins.

Her campaign speeches are significantly shorter and more powerful than Biden’s, often lasting less than 30 minutes, but they pack a punch. Of Trump, Kamala said:

“This campaign is about two very different visions for our nation's future: one that focuses on the future, and one that focuses on the past.”

Along with running mate Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, she roused the crowd by declaring, "In this fight, we are happy warriors."