After the PPI and CPI were announced below expectations in the USA, September undoubtedly gained a much different meaning.
On August 14, when we reached the point we wanted on the inflation side, the anxiety of the "monkey flower virus" suddenly broke out. WHO declared a global emergency around the night hours of August 14.
What did Bitcoin react to?
Bitcoin touched the purple region last week and fell to $49,000 after a long break.
The blue zone ($58-60 thousand), which became a potential resistance zone, was tested as resistance for two weeks.
After the weekly close took place under the blue zone, we saw the sellers make a new move with the opening of the new week.
The wick, which was thrown weekly to the blue area for the second time, reduces the possibility of BTC making the desired explosion in the short term and especially in August.
We see that Bitcoin is still moving in the descending wedge, and it will continue to move within the wedge if there is no weekly closure below the purple region.
We see that recession concerns have decreased due to data from the USA, and according to some new reports, a beacon of hope has appeared that geopolitical tensions may decrease.
In particular, according to CNN's report, the US asked Iran not to attack Israel, because the possibility of a ceasefire very soon is being considered.
In an environment where recession anxiety is reduced and geopolitical tensions are likely to fall, there is an alarming âmonkey flower virusâ reality for Bitcoin in the short term.
In any case, there is a BTC that needs to hold on to the purple zone. If he can achieve this and, of course, settle on top of the blue zone, we will be able to talk about a much better near future.
In fact, we have a very positive picture ahead of us, but many crisis candidates that emerged in the summer months have suppressed the development, especially cryptocurrencies.
The 2800 â 2850 range is critical in ETH
Ether had managed to hold on to life from the critical zone.
The yellow major support zone is one of the most important on this chart in the weekly time frame.
The green resistance zone in ETH, which quickly settled on top of the purple region, was tested this week, but this region could not be crossed.
We see that the green zone (2800 â $2850 dollar zone), which has served as support for months, has become an important resistance zone as of the recent decline.
It is not possible to say that the chaotic process ended on behalf of ETH without crossing this region.
Meanwhile, BlackRock's ETH assets are quietly increasing. As of today, BlackRock has 322,422 ETH, with a total value of $845 million at the moment.
Despite the sharp drop in price, BlackRock's assets reached almost $1 billion.
2023 similarity in Altcoin Market Cap
Now let's look at the overview of the altcoin market we entered with Ether.
Altcoin Market Cap, as you know, shows the total market value of the altcoin market.
In recent weeks, the red major has touched the support area and continues to act on it.
The altcoin Market Cap has a range of 670-740 billion dollars, a very important region.
It is possible to compare the current outlook of the Altcoin Market Cap to the performance of the S&P 500 July 2023. While Bitcoin follows the footsteps of gold, the Altcoin Market Cap has so far followed the S&P 500 behind.
The S&P 500 is an index that shows the performance of the 500 largest companies in the US.
The S&P 500 had faced significant selling pressure when it first tested the navy major resistance zone, and that sales pressure continued until the green major support zone.
The S&P 500, which recovered quickly, had voluminously broke the major resistance zone after this green major support zone test, making it a new peak. We also know that from that point on, SPX continues on its way very strongly.
We know that the Altcoin Market Cap was also very harshly rejected from the yellow major resistance zone, and the selling pressure in ALTS lasted until the red major support zone was tested.
We would like to see the Altcoin Market Cap continue to gather strength above the major support zone, at least this should be achieved until the meeting (mid-September) where we expect the Fed to change its monetary policy.
The first chart shows the weekly outlook of the Altcoin Market Cap.
The second chart shows a two-week view of the S&P 500 (SPX).
The third chart shows the Altcoin Market Cap and SPX together.
You can discover the similarity by carefully examining the graphics.
Global liquidity increases may intensify
I would like to underline again that the global liquidity increase has begun.
When we examine the past, there were often short-term sharp declines in BTC just before the periods of sharp rises in M2 (money supply). There is a small or often large-scale crisis and then we see the money supply making a new peak.
After a while, sharp rises begin in Bitcoin and mostly final peaks in cycles are seen.
A similar situation (sharp decline in BTC) has recently happened again with recession concerns. The suspicion of whether the monkey flower virus will evolve into a pandemic and geopolitical tensions are other issues that worry investors.
Global liquidity has recently started to increase again. It is possible that we will see a more severe increase for different reasons in the coming period. Of course, there is a possibility that sellers will suppress markets until the Fed meeting in mid-September. Potential dangers on social media can also be voiced many times. As always, stay away from leveraged transactions, especially in this process.
Buyers' appetite continues in Bitcoin
In Bitcoin, buyers continue to maintain their appetite.
Bitcoin is moving in a region close to the level of 60 thousand dollars after the past months, when it survived many troubles.
We see large wallet holders continue to buy aggressively.
When the on-chain data were examined, the demand for Bitcoin increased, especially in the last month, according to the Accumulation Trend Score metric. We usually see that the price starts to move upwards when big wallet owners show great interest.
What you need to know
Recession concerns are quite low. As of the second quarter, recession expectations are well below average.
Long-term investors have purchased 500,000 BTC since July 30.
Approximately 75% of Bitcoin supply has never moved in the last 6 months. A situation that reduces sales pressure.
