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Weekly Review
This week, from August 12 to August 19, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $61,800 and the lowest was close to $56,078, with a fluctuation range of about 9.34%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 59,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.38 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.16 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
Important news
Economic News
The U.S. retail sales monthly rate in July was 1%, higher than the expected value of 0.3% and higher than the previous value of 0.00%.
The number of initial unemployment claims for the week was 227,000, lower than the expected value of 235,000 and lower than the previous value of 233,000.
U.S. retail sales rose 1% month-on-month in July, the highest increase since January 2023, easing financial market concerns about a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Economist Peter Cardillo said retail sales were much stronger than expected, reducing fears of a recession and good news for the stock market. Analysts believe that a soft landing scenario is a positive catalyst for the stock market, which could lead to further gains.
The futures market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 74.5% from 65% on Wednesday night, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to about 23.5%.
Federal Reserve's Musallem Cheng: No economic recession is expected in the next few quarters; US GDP growth is expected to be between 1.5% and 2% in the second half of this year; the time for interest rate changes may be coming soon.
Encrypted ecological news
Vanguard CEO Salim Ramji said the company will not copy its competitor (BlackRock) and launch a cryptocurrency ETF.
According to ai_9684xtpa data, Lido ETH staking has experienced net outflows for 12 consecutive days since August this year, with a total outflow of 74,304 ETH (about $194 million). Among them, JumpTrading redeemed 62,609 ETH from Lido.
According to Lookonchain data, a total of $955 million in stablecoins have flowed from Tether to Kraken since August 5.
Cynthia LoBessette, head of Fidelity Digital Asset Management, said that although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet approved an ETF that can pledge ETH, this may change in the future because staking is an important part of ETH investment opportunities.
It believes that it is more a matter of time rather than whether it will happen, and Fidelity has had constructive conversations with SEC staff about the possibility of bringing a collateralized ETH ETF to market.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at the Crypto4Harris town hall meeting that the United States should find a balance between promoting innovation and providing common-sense guardrails for cryptocurrencies, with the goal of getting a bill passed by the Senate and turned into law by the end of the year.
According to Bitwise statistics, based on the 13F holdings reports submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 44% of asset management companies increased their BTC ETF positions in the second quarter, 22% remained unchanged, 21% of institutions reduced their positions, and 13% liquidated their positions.
Approximately 66% of institutional investors hold or have increased their BTC holdings through BTC spot ETFs (Form 13F is a quarterly regulatory report that all institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management must submit).
According to the 13F report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley bought a total of more than $600 million in BTC spot ETFs in the second quarter. Among them, Goldman Sachs spent about $418 million to purchase BTC spot ETFs, most of which were BlackRock IBIT (worth about $238 million).
Morgan Stanley holds $188 million worth of BlackRock IBIT, making it one of the top five holders of the ETF, along with smaller holdings of ARKB and Grayscale GBTC;
According to Lookonchain statistics, the address marked as "U.S. Government" has transferred a total of 15,940 BTC to Coinbase Prime in three times this year (10,000 BTC were transferred on August 15), with a value of approximately US$966.4 million. Within three days after the first two transfers, the BTC price fell by about 5%.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Large exchange net positions
Illiquidity Whales
High quality selling pressure
Long-term investors' holdings
(Long chart: Large exchange net positions)
The inflows and outflows of large-scale net positions show that large inflows are gradually decreasing and the large-scale selling pressure in the market is gradually decreasing.
(Picture below: Illiquidity Whale)
The large group of illiquid whales shows that they are still buying.
This shows that market support still exists.
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure began to decline further and is almost approaching the blue low selling pressure area.
High-weight selling pressure declined further.
(The following figure shows the holding structure of long-term investors)
The increase in holdings by long-term participants and the resumption of buying behavior by long-term participants prove their optimism about the future market.
The market has not yet formed a vacuum zone, is not fragile, and has not entered a deep bear market.
Mid-term exploration
USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Liquidity Supply
Total selling pressure on the chain
Analysis of price structure
(USDC purchasing power comprehensive score in the figure below)
From the observation of this model, the buyer status presented by USDC shows that institutional users may have a higher willingness to buy.
While their buying status has not weakened, there is still buying power support in the market.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
As online sentiment continues to recover, the decline has narrowed compared to before.
The speed at which the market moves in the short to medium term may depend on the speed at which sentiment is repaired.
The current structure is close to August to October 23.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
There are signs that the liquidity supply has gradually recovered. It is possible that the liquidity that was previously insufficient is due to the lack of liquidity.
There will be some relief.
(Figure below: Total selling pressure on the chain)
The recent performance of sellers is relatively close to the overall decline in selling pressure.
It is possible that under the current situation, the decline in seller power will affect the main body to become buyers.
(The figure below shows the price structure analysis)
The current top price of BTC stock is around 70317, and the high profit zone of long-term chips has risen to 79540.
Due to the extremely narrow profit margin, the currently calculated range is limited, so the incremental increase in the market will determine whether it can break through the top of the stock.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is close to the red zone, and the derivatives risk is increasing.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week, the risk factor touched the red zone and the market subsequently continued to fluctuate as expected. This week, the risk factor is close to the red zone again and the market is still inclined to fluctuate or make a small correction.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Options volume fell slightly, and the put option ratio was in the middle.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes fell back to low levels after the market stabilized.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to depressed
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Both panic sentiment (orange line) and positive sentiment (blue line) have fallen to a low range. Usually the market will continue to fluctuate, but it also means the power to continue the next fluctuation.
Next, we will continue to pay attention to whether the blue line rebounds.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC inflows accumulate, ETH has moderate outflows.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Although there is a small outflow of BTC at present, the large amount of chips that previously flowed into the exchange have not yet been fully digested.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions are in a medium outflow state.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has been lost slightly, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America's purchasing power is once again being lost.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 57,000; there is a willingness to sell at 62,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 52,000 to 57,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 61,000 and 65,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 54,000 to 57,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 60,000~63,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 55,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 67,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
According to the latest submitted 13F holdings form, approximately 66% of institutional investors used BTC spot in the second quarter.
ETFs that hold or have increased their BTC holdings include well-known investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.
BlackRock and Fidelity's spot BTC ETFs alone hold a total of $31.6 billion in BTC.
Unfortunately, it did not promote a big rise in the market because of the joint selling of the second Lidu MtGox, Jump Trading, Germany/the United States/Grayscale and other addresses.
The increase in holdings by leading institutions is in the hope that cryptocurrencies will outperform traditional stock markets in the future when money is loosened. Historically, the cryptocurrency market has indeed performed well during periods of monetary easing.
Unfortunately, a large number of institutions that went bankrupt last year and the year before last, that is, in 2022, have been liquidated recently, which has suppressed prices.
In the short term, it will need to wait for these liquidations to be completed before it can return to its alpha properties.
On-chain long-term insights:
Large selling pressure is decreasing;
Illiquid whale groups are still buying, supporting the market;
High-quality selling pressure is also declining, approaching the edge of low selling pressure;
Long-term players are buying back in, and structurally speaking, there are no deep bear conditions at the moment.
Market setting:
The selling pressure is decreasing and the market is becoming solid.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Institutional users have higher purchasing power;
The mood in the venue is gradually recovering and has warmed up to a certain extent compared with before;
There are signs of a slight recovery in liquidity;
Decline in seller power;
The top price of BTC stock is around 70317, and the increase in volume will determine whether it can break through.
Market setting:
accumulation
The main factor affecting the market price in the market is no longer selling pressure, but the strength of buying power. It may require stronger buying power to squeeze the seller's space.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is close to the red area and the risk of derivatives increases.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment rating: neutral to depressed.
The overall net position of the exchange shows an accumulation of BTC inflows and a moderate outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power has been lost slightly, while the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 57,000 and a willingness to sell at 62,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 54,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 64,000-67,000 in the short term is 74%.
Market setting:
The overall market sentiment is neutral to low, and positive sentiment is low. At the same time, indicators show that the next fluctuation is also brewing. The overall expectation is basically the same as last week. The market may have limited rebound and is more inclined to range fluctuations.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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