1. QCP Capital: The stock market is optimistic, the crypto market is sluggish, and attention is paid to the risk of yen arbitrage
QCP Capital pointed out that the U.S. stock market hit a record high and Asian markets performed well due to expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the economy; despite strong optimism, the S&P 500 options market showed signs of tension, and Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech was expected to trigger a 1% volatility; crypto market sentiment was depressed, and the funding rate of BTC perpetual contracts fell to the lowest level since 2022; pay attention to the potential unwinding of yen/dollar carry trades, which may trigger a market decline.
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2. Polymarket shows that the chances of winning the Democratic candidate Harris have declined recently
Prediction website Polymarket shows that the chances of Democratic candidate Harris' victory have declined recently. On August 18, Trump and Harris both had a 49% chance of winning. Vance said on "Fox News Sunday": "We have seen from our own internal data that Harris's support has stabilized."
3. The United States is considering amending the Bank Secrecy Act to strengthen financial institutions’ reporting requirements for cryptocurrency transactions
The U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve plan to redefine "currency" in the Bank Secrecy Act to include cryptocurrencies and digital assets in new reporting requirements. They hope that the revised proposal will ensure that the rules apply to domestic and cross-border transactions involving convertible virtual currencies, which are a medium of exchange (such as cryptocurrency) that has a value equivalent to currency or can replace currency but lacks legal tender status.
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4. ZachXBT: A victim was suspected of having a suspicious transfer and 4064 BTC was stolen
Seven hours ago, a suspicious transfer occurred from the address of a potential victim, which may have been stolen, with an amount of 4064 BTC, worth $238 million. The funds were quickly transferred to ThorChain, eXch, Kucoin, ChangeNow, Railgun, and Avalanche Bridge. It is worth noting that the victim may be a creditor of the bankrupt Genesis Trading.
5. Tether announced that it will soon launch USDT on the Aptos network
The integration is part of Tether’s broader strategy to leverage Aptos’ blockchain technology, speed and scalability to make digital currencies more accessible and usable around the world. The integration of USDT on the Aptos blockchain will take full advantage of its dynamic capabilities.
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6. Wu said this week's macroeconomic indicators and analysis: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes, Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting Powell's speech
summary
Last week, the US inflation data CPI & PPI both entered a downward channel as expected, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also unexpectedly cut interest rates. This week, the focus will be on the minutes of the July monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and Powell’s corresponding speech. The market expects that Powell’s speech will pave the way for a rate cut in September.
Last week review
● The annual rate of PPI in the US in July was 2.2%, in line with expectations of 2.30%. The previous value was revised from 2.60% to 2.7%.
● The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates, lowering them from 5.5% to 5.25%, the first rate cut since March 2020.
● Eurozone's second quarter GDP annual rate was revised to 0.6%, in line with expectations of 0.60%.
● The U.S. unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 3.2% in July, lower than the previous value of 3.3%, in line with expectations, and hitting a new low since May 2021.
● The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 10 was 227,000, compared with expectations of 235,000 and the previous value of 233,000.
● The initial forecast for the US one-year inflation rate in August was 2.9%, the expected rate was 2.90%, and the previous value was 2.90%.
● The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August was 67.8, expected to be 66.9, and the previous reading was 66.4.
This week's key events & indicators
August 20
● Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes of August monetary policy meeting (09:30)
● Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value (17:00)
August 21
●2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivered a speech (01:35)
August 22
● The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting (02:00)
● ECB releases minutes of July monetary policy meeting (19:30)
● Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting held until August 24
August 23
● Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting (22:00)
