Since Thursday last week, the Japanese yen has strengthened by 2.4% against the US dollar, ending its recent decline. This shows that a risk-averse currency is once again being favored. In addition, the Japanese yen has strengthened by more than 1% against the Australian dollar, while also showing a positive performance against the euro and the British pound. These developments in the forex market follow a similar trend to the performance of the Japanese yen in late July and early this month. This led to the end of some investments made with low-cost Japanese yen loans, hurting Bitcoin and other altcoins. BTC fell from $70,000 to $50,000 in eight days, ahead of the surge in USD/JPY.
The strength of the Japanese yen is creating problems with the triggering of stops and the unwinding of risky positions. Famous trader Simon Ree stated on the X platform that this situation has shaken global risk assets. Andrei Kazantsev, head of the cryptocurrency trading desk at Goldman Sachs, explained how Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) were caught in the global VAR shock on August 5th due to the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade. VAR refers to the maximum amount of loss a market can experience over a certain period of time. Sudden movements force investors to exit risky assets.
The Japanese yen is currently gaining strength, which is why cryptocurrency investors should be careful. The Japanese yen has risen from 161 to 141.68 against the US dollar in three weeks. This could encourage investors to buy dips in the Japanese yen.
âA 20-point decline in USD/JPY could affect expectations for future direction and behavior. People are likely to buy more Japanese yen at lower prices, increasing the likelihood of a stronger yen,â ING said on Aug. 16. Some analysts say carry trading could resume in the coming weeks, with the U.S. economy and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set to meet in mid-September to decide on interest rates next month.
FFFs currently project a 50% chance of a 50bp hike in September, but that chance is expected to decrease as the FOMC meeting approaches. If the Fed were to cut 50bp, the market would initially react positively. However, concerns about the economy and the strengthening Japanese yen could revive carry trade easing, causing a sell-off.
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I EXPLAIN IN DETAILED.
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