On Polymarket, Trump's odds rose from 44% to 47%, while his rival Kamala Harris's odds fell from 54% to 51%. Trump's lead on Polymarket has increased despite recent polls showing Harris has a better chance.

The latest poll from Rasmussen Research shows Harris leading in the key swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics' national polls show Harris' average support rising by 1.5 percentage points, while The Economist's polls show Harris' average support rising by 2.7 percentage points. Other prediction markets such as Betfair and PredictIt still have Harris's odds ahead of Trump.

In addition, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver's election prediction model shows Harris's odds at 53.5% and Trump's at 45.9%, with the latter rising 0.7% in the past two days as his odds on Polymarket have increased by about 5%. Silver believes the race is basically a 50-50, but Harris has a slightly stronger hand.

Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, said of the polls for this race that Trump led by 5 points in key states in May, and now Harris leads by 2 points, a huge gap of 7 points. Harris has seen a significant increase in support among young people, non-white voters and female voters, while her support among men and white voters has increased more modestly, but still improved.