📊 The latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" reveals market expectations for rate cuts:
Probability of rate cuts in September:
25 basis point rate cuts: 72.5%50 basis point rate cuts: 27.5%
Cumulative rate cut probability by November:
50 basis point rate cuts: 56.3%75 basis point rate cuts: 37.6%100 basis point rate cuts: 6.2%
🔍 Market analysis:
With the fluctuations in US economic data, the Fed's policy direction has attracted much attention. Judging from the current probability, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, mainly considering the easing of inflationary pressures, signs of cooling in the job market, and uncertainty in the global economy. The impact of this policy expectation on market sentiment cannot be underestimated, especially in interest rate-sensitive asset areas such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
However, it should be noted that despite the increased expectations of rate cuts, the Fed's actual decision will still be based on data performance in the coming months. If inflation continues to fall and economic growth slows more than expected, further interest rate cuts will become a high probability event, and the cumulative interest rate cut may even reach 100 basis points
