Odaily Planet Daily News Last weekend, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, Donald Trump's probability of winning soared from 44% to 49% (currently 48%), while his rival Kamala Harris's probability of winning fell from 54% to 49%. More than $630 million has been bet on the results of the US election, and millions of users are betting on swing states and other related results in smaller markets. Strangely, Trump's lead on Polymarket has increased despite recent polls showing Harris has a greater chance. The latest poll from Rasmussen Research shows Harris leading in the key swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Rasmussen Research has been accused of a conservative bias. RealClearPolitics' national polls show Harris' average support has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while The Economist's polls show Harris' average support has risen by 2.7 percentage points. Other prediction markets have yet to reflect this phenomenon. Betfair, the second largest prediction market with about $67 million in bets, has Harris winning about 5 percentage points ahead of Trump on the platform. PredictIt, one of the sites available to U.S. residents, has $34 million in bets, and Harris is leading Trump by about 10 percentage points. Mathematical models also show Harris continuing to lead. FiveThirtyEight founder and Polymarket consultant Nate Silver's election prediction model shows Harris winning at 53.5% to Trump's 45.9%, with the latter rising 0.7% in the past two days as his Polymarket odds have increased by about 5%. According to Silver, the race is "...basically 50-50, but Harris has a slightly stronger hand." The Economist predicts Harris will win 272 electoral votes to Trump's 266. Nate Cohn, chief political analyst and polling director for The New York Times, recently spoke about polling in this race in an interview, saying, “In May, Trump was ahead by 5 points in key states. Now, Harris is ahead by 2 points, so it’s a big gap, 7 points.We found that Harris's support among young people, non-white voters, and female voters increased significantly, while Harris's support among men and white voters increased more modestly, but still improved. "Data shows that Polymarket's open interest positions have recently recovered from a sharp drop earlier last week, which was the largest single-day drop in the platform's history. This month, more than 40,000 users have joined the site, which should be noted that the site prohibits US residents from trading on its platform. (The Block)