"This is the dumbest running of the bulls in history"

"The trend is now decreasing"

"There will never be a good result again, just accept it"

These are things I see on my timeline all the time.

Listen, you have no idea:

1️⃣ Crypto grew and always bounced back for 15 years.

Betting that this is the year things turn around and go down only from here on out would be the worst possible trade from a statistical point of view.

The risk to reward does not outweigh the disadvantages of this 15 year accuracy.

2️⃣ This is not yet a real bull run

The claim that this is the worst bull run is not entirely wrong for many. But it is also there.

That's because we're not really there yet.

I know what you're going to say:

"Ha, have fun round tripping or supercycle betting"

I'm not betting on any of that. I'm just looking at the facts.

First, it's 2024, although Bitcoin has rallied quite early due to ETF exposure, historically this year has never done well.

The next year has come (2025). The violas back it up pretty well, to be honest. It doesn't feel like a real bull run yet.

3️⃣ Don't pay attention to time and bitcoin

Even though bitcoin has already run and regardless of the 4 year cycle, look at the macro!

I am not at all betting on a long or multi-year bull run that lasts forever!

I'm saying we haven't really had a bull yet.

What if this was a real bull run and we had an ETF? Bitcoin would have already exceeded $100,000!

This is why there is so much confusion, is it a bull or not?

In a way it is, in a way it is not.

But basically, every bull market likes an injection of liquidity.

- New retail join after fomo media and higher numbers (BTC above $70k and Ethereum above $4k)

- Low interest rates

- Money printer included

- etc

I always say that you have to be adaptable. The next bull run may last longer or even shorter than others.

Don't take history as something absolute.

But what I'm saying is that the bull run may not have started to begin with because it technically hasn't started yet in a way.

Will it be as powerful? Will there be diminishing returns?

It remains to be seen, but we probably haven't even run yet while others suggest we're halfway there.

~

Don't be swayed because some people say so.

Or simply because this bull run was lackluster.

This is simply because they have only looked at Bitcoin or they have recently joined with limited experience.