Before and after the opening of the U.S. stock market last night, the volatility of Bitcoin in a few minutes exceeded that of a day. If you are a high-leverage player, it must be uncomfortable. You were still profitable a few minutes ago, but immediately turned into a loss. You either stopped loss or held on to it and waited for the position to be liquidated. This is a great test of your mentality. For the current low-liquidity BTC market, only spot can be fearless of ups and downs. It is better not to exceed 3 times if you have leverage. Yesterday, I said that for partners who bought the bottom at 56,200, you can take it. The current price is above 59,200, and the profit has exceeded 3,000 points. The spot has made a profit of more than 5%. Those who are afraid of profit retracement can sell first, and the profit can still be under the pattern. The weekend market is generally stagnant, and the bold ones can continue to hold greed.
Back to today's market analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour and 4-hour levels are in an upward trend, and the 12-hour level is about to enter an upward trend (if it does not fall below 58200 before 12 o'clock, it will enter an upward trend). The daily level market shows a downward trend (if tomorrow's market closes positive, it will enter an upward trend again). It is impossible to enter an upward structure without getting out of the downward structure.
Although both bulls and bears have opportunities in the short term, the risk of low-level longs is slightly higher, especially on the needle-piercing day.
Because when the daily line is in a downward trend, the rebound is a 30-minute to 12-hour rebound. The resistance at the daily level is like the Five Elements Mountain, and the height of the rebound has a predetermined ceiling. Therefore, the short-term is mainly high-short and low-long. The high-short and low-long positions are the same, and each position is only done 1-2 times.
Next week, there will be information from Monday to Friday, which means that fluctuations are bound to be very frequent, and there may be needles every day.
Therefore, both long and short positions should be aware of risks. Do not force liquidation or stop loss due to fluctuations of several hundred points or one or two thousand points in the short term. Only place orders at appropriate points and leave the rest to time. 56,000 has been hit this week. I have placed orders for the bottom-picking points below 56,000 and am waiting. It is best to use different accounts for mid-term (profit margin of more than 10,000 points) and short-term (12-24 hours) transactions.
Will Bitcoin reach 76,000 in September?
From the current K-line level, I think it is almost impossible, or to be more precise, it is almost impossible to rise directly to 76,000 before reaching a lower point than 49,000. Because the monthly line is a step-down structure, how can it be higher than the highest point of 73,000 in March? This logic is like none of us can go forward and backward.
73800 in March is the ceiling of the current monthly trend, and the support below is 43000. Without a test of 43000, it is unlikely to go directly above 70,000, and even 66000 is difficult to reach. Those who simply think that the September rate cut will lead to a big surge are all simple leeks. At least for now, the 1-day MACD has not climbed above the zero axis, so how can it surge?
When most people are expecting a surge after the interest rate cut, can it really surge? This surge is conditional. There will be a surge only after a sharp drop! The main players of the institutions are all watching this time point. They can easily beat you by unified action in the short term. If the market closes in the negative in August, it will close in the positive in September. Let's get through August, which is dominated by shorts, first!
