Traders now betting on smaller Fed rate cut in September 📊 📈 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September 2024 meeting is all but guaranteed. However, the question now centers around whether the Fed will cut 25 basis points (bps) or follow through with a jumbo 50 bps cut. Traders have adjusted probabilities over the last week based on new economic data points.

The probability of a target rate of 4.75 - 5.00 at the September 18, 2024 meeting, or a 50 bps cut, is now 32% versus a 53% probability of a jumbo cut last week, according to the latest CME futures prices. On the other hand, the odds of a target rate of 5.00 - 5.25, which would represent a decrease of 25 bps from the current rate, have risen to 68% from a 47% probability the previous week.