Surely many are already tired of reading about facts indicating a fall in the crypto market. Especially considering the fact that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are in no hurry to go down, when at the same time US indices are falling, the dollar index is growing, US bonds are plummeting and even gold is falling.
As you understand, we try not to catch small movements in the market and perceive it as market noise. Therefore, first of all, we always look at the weekly timeframe.
No matter what anyone says, now everything is in favor of a fall and we have provided all the facts in previous posts.
I would like to convey to you that when the market reaches the levels we expect, we will be the first to start talking about the end of the bear market. When at the same time everyone will be seized with fear and no one will take us seriously, which in general is happening now regarding our scenarios with the fall.
👎 But what if we are wrong? What needs to happen for us to change our point of view?
Now we have terrible fundamental indicators of the economies of all developed countries of the world, which should put pressure on all assets of the planet.
If we talk exclusively about cryptocurrencies, then there is a risk of bankruptcy/scam of some crypto exchanges. For example, Time Bomb - Huobi
And the constant litigation of the Binance exchange, which yesterday completely left the Russian market.
Also, we recently looked at Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, where everything is also not as good as we would like.
🔼 However, as they said at the beginning of the post, now the crypto market is showing strength relative to all assets on the planet! This must be taken into account, and therefore it is worth considering alternative scenarios for market movement.
In general, there are 2 events in the crypto market that should have a strong impact on the market, and in favor of growth. We are talking about ETFs and Bitcoin halving.
Regarding the halving, we plan to release a large review, where we will analyze how the price behaves in anticipation of and after this event.
We have already done a similar review about the Litecoin cryptocurrency, where in the end we calculated everything up to the day 👉 Litecoin. A living example of the impact of halving.
But the situation with ETFs is more interesting, since you and I agree, in fact, it doesn’t matter at all whether applications for these ETFs are approved or not. In any case, we will buy real Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and not a fake piece of paper supposedly backed by real cryptocurrencies.
But, unfortunately, institutional investors, pension funds and other organizations need this bullshit in the form of ETFs. Because at the moment, companies that would like to invest part of their budget in digital assets and make money cannot do this simply because it is illegal.
Therefore, in 2024, this fact will 100% be one of the growth drivers. And if any ETF is eventually approved in the near future, then the price will not be able to keep from flying upward and this is a fact.
🕯 Technical analysis
So, we figured out the fundamentals and found out under what conditions a rally can begin from current prices.
But what needs to happen technically for us to change our point of view?
In fact, you don't need much:
1. Breakout and consolidation of Bitcoin price above long-term moving averages
2. Breakout and consolidation of the price above the resistance level of $30,000
3. Growth in volumes at least on the daily timeframe
4. Formation of bullish divergences on higher timeframes
That is, the above parameters will fully confirm the transition of the market to the bullish stage. And in fact, you can buy Bitcoin now and forget about it for a year or two. But we want to buy as cheaply as possible, so we’re not in a hurry to get into the market now. Moreover, we are not ready to sit in a high drawdown.
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