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I have a habit of reading monthly and quarterly reports of large organizations, especially Binance Research, to restructure my investment portfolio 🤔.
The reason is simple. 👉 They are the game creators, so in many cases they will "hint" at trends or hot projects for the community. You just need to be diligent and pay a little attention, there is a high chance of finding good projects!
💵For example, in Q1/2023, Binance Research predicted a lot about AI, RWA and Solnana trends. They even specifically mentioned some projects that had good growth by early 2024 such as Lens Protocol, CFG, ARKM, Bittensor...
👉So why look far, when the big guys have already put the deal in your hands like that?? 😅😅
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Here are Binance's predictions for the second half of 2024, including both macro and the crypto market. I have noted the main points along with personal comments, so please read carefully!
Policy impact
Binance believes that the crypto industry has been very successful when the US officially approved the Bitcoin ETF spot, especially the participation of TradFi giants like BlackRock and Fidelity.
In this section, Binance also talks about a misconception of the crypto community, which is that large funds do not invest their own money, but the Bitcoin ETF cash flow is actually still retailers and a crowd of small investors. Therefore, observing the Bitcoin ETF cash flow every day and viewing it as a form of "smart money" is not a very correct strategy.
👉However, in general, Bitcoin ETF and ETH ETF both help investors in other fields access crypto, so this is definitely beneficial for the market.
Impact from US macro
Binance sees one of the most important events of the second half of 2024 as the US presidential election, which will end in November.
Binance predicts that there will be strong fluctuations before and after the election (which have already happened). However, crypto will still have growth prospects as a series of countries have started to cut interest rates. In the US, the FED will likely also cut interest rates from September, after 2 consecutive years of maintaining record high interest rates.
The exchange's report also emphasized that loosening monetary policy will help the market become more vibrant. Currently, many people are worried that the FED's interest rate cut means that the economy is showing signs of recession. 👉 But you should understand that crypto is still too small compared to the general market. Even if the world economy enters a recession, it will still take months, or even quarters, for the destruction to spread to every home. That time is more than enough for Bitcoin and altcoins to complete the growth wave of this cycle.
Projects that help expand the Bitcoin Ecosystem
You should pay attention to this part, this is not the first time Binance's report emphasizes projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Binance's view is that the Bitcoin Ecosystem needs to be expanded. Therefore, they appreciate new standards such as BRC-20, Ordinal, and Runes.
💥Binance mentioned some typical projects such as Lightning Network, Stacks, RGB, Citrea, Merlin.
Along with that are BounceBit (BB) and Babylon. >> Remember to take notes to read gradually and filter gems.
DEPIN and DESOC projects
🤔I think this part is quite important for you to build an investment strategy. According to Binance, good projects in the future need to solve problems in users' lives. Therefore, the DEPIN and DESOC segments will have a lot of potential.
Regarding DEPIN, you can consider decentralized data storage projects, sharing decentralized computing power, typically FIL, IO, TAO, GRT...
Regarding DESO (also known as SocialFi), Binance emphasizes Farcaster - a project supported by Vitalik himself. I think you should create a Farcaster account and interact regularly, the registration fee for 1 year is only $5. Although the project says there will be no airdrop, with the huge amount of capital raised, I think there will still be airdrop. At the end of May, Farcaster announced that it had just raised $150 million for Series A. This is a really big number for a SocialFi project.
RWA is still a bright spot
Binance continues to support RWA, even though this is a segment that has grown quite strongly at the beginning of the year.
The reason is that Binance believes that RWA can thrive despite the high interest rate period, thanks to its tokenized treasury model, which provides attractive returns for investors.
In addition, the RWA array also promotes related infrastructures such as decentralized identity, oracles, and user interaction solutions to develop accordingly.
💥Binance does not specifically mention any names in this section, but you can note Centrifuge (CFG) and ORDI, LINK, SNX!
Game Web3
It is quite strange that Binance does not continue to use the name Gamefi or “play to earn” anymore, but returns to using “Game Web3”.
Maybe this is a hint of a trend change in the GameFi segment, when users are no longer interested in "play to earn" projects due to poor gameplay and mainly fast money.
In this section, Binance only mentioned 2 games on TON, including Hamster Kombat and NOTcoin, along with Pixels and Parallel TCG. The research team also believes that the new gamefi trend is focusing on building the community before promoting the economic factor. In the future, when the community is strong enough, the project will innovate with more sustainable "in-game" economic models.
👉In short, whichever game you are playing, you should persevere in pursuing it. Although it is a bit difficult to earn right now, as long as the market warms up again and the devs change some directions, long-time players like you will definitely benefit.
