There is a leading indicator of whether institutions are interested in Bitcoin at current prices, and according to one crypto analyst, the situation is not looking good.

The seven-day minting rate – a key metric related to stablecoins, often seen as one of the clearest signs of Bitcoin buying activity – has dropped significantly over the past week.

“Institutions poured fiat into crypto via Circle to take advantage of the opportunity when Bitcoin dipped below $55,000, but now they seem less interested in entering the market at current prices,” Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, noted in an August 16 report.

Divergence between US tech stocks and crypto market confuses traders

Traders are surprised by the divergence between the strong rally in US tech stocks and the weakness in the crypto market. While tech stocks continue to rise on positive macroeconomic data, the crypto market is moving in the opposite direction with low trading volume.

This suggests that internal factors and the structure of the crypto market are playing a major role in shaping prices, beyond the impact of macroeconomic factors. For example, a strong Nasdaq rally might suggest Bitcoin should be at $66,000, but the resistance from internal factors prevents the crypto market from reflecting the same bullish momentum.

Nasdaq (left) vs Bitcoin (right) – Nasdaq bullish implies BTC at 66,000

Bitcoin is expected to trade in a range of $50,000 to $60,000, with the recovery momentum from the August 5 crash stalling around the resistance zone between $60,000 and $61,000. This slowdown could allow oversold technical indicators to re-establish, increasing the likelihood that Bitcoin could retest lows near $50,000—a move that would surprise many. While there is still room for profit in the crypto market, the timing is not optimal.

Understanding market structure and investor sentiment will be crucial in predicting the next direction of crypto prices.

Institutions are waiting for further price drops

Bitcoin has been trading below $60,000 for the past 24 hours.

This indicator measures the creation and issuance of new stablecoins, essentially reflecting the amount of US dollars that have been converted into crypto.

“The flow of capital into stablecoins is an important indicator that fiat is being converted into crypto and often then moved into coins like BTC or ETH,” Thielen explained.

The situation was markedly different in early August when Bitcoin dropped to $49,472.

Thielen noted that the index “skyrocketed” on August 6, reaching $2.7 billion.

However, since then, the figure has dropped to $1.4 billion even as Bitcoin is still trading below the key $60,000 price point.

He also added that stablecoin Tether “remains active,” while Circle, the issuer of USD Coin, has “returned to silence.”

Meanwhile, futures traders believe that Bitcoin's price has room to fall further, with the long-to-short ratio over the past 24 hours slightly tilted toward the short side, at 50.88%, according to CoinGlass.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped another two points, showing a “Fear” level of 27 at the time of writing.

But for many analysts, even though Bitcoin just experienced a correction to a five-month low, its bull run could last another year.

Based on a report by Bybit and BlockScholes, based on Bitcoin's rates in previous cycles, the current bull run could last until the third quarter of 2025.

Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/cac-to-chuc-khong-may-quan-tam-den-bitcoin-o-muc-58k.html