I think the data release at 8:30 tonight is the beginning of a firm counterattack by the US stock market; the past week can only be regarded as a rebound in the absence of more data;

Although the unemployment rate has continued to rise for several months, the data in July is too special and has seasonal factors;

The economy is not yet pessimistic;

The current market disagreement is whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. Some Wall Street analysts hope for a 50 basis point rate cut, which is more than 100 basis points for the whole year, but this is not realistic;

A 25 basis point rate cut in September, a gentle and symbolic rate cut, is the best and most realistic start;

In the short term, there is a divergence between BTC and US stocks, but this divergence will not last too long. The main reason is that the funds in the crypto circle are too sensitive, the mood is depressed, the potential selling pressure is large, Jump is gone, and the low liquidity market has caused the mood to be close to the freezing point;

But this is only temporary. If the US stock market continues to heat up before the rate cut is implemented, the Etf buying volume will be enthusiastic, which can at least help BTC change the divergence situation.