#美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？
I think the data release at 8:30 tonight is the beginning of a firm counterattack for the US stock market; the past week can only be regarded as a rebound in the absence of more data;
Although the unemployment rate has continued to rise for several months, the data in July is too special and has seasonal factors;
The economy is not yet pessimistic;
The current market disagreement is whether the interest rate cut in September is 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Some Wall Street analysts hope for a 50 basis point rate cut, and a rate cut of more than 100 basis points for the whole year. , but this is not realistic;
A 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, a gentle, symbolic interest rate cut, is the best and most realistic start;
In the short term, there is a divergence between BTC and US stocks, but this divergence will not last too long. The main reason is that the funds in the crypto circle are too sensitive, the mood is depressed, the potential selling pressure is large, Jump is gone, and the low liquidity market has caused the mood to be close to the freezing point;
But this is only temporary. If the US stock market continues to heat up before the interest rate cut is implemented, and the Etf buying volume is enthusiastic, it can at least help BTC change the divergence situation
