After the CPI data was released last night, the actual data was 2.9%, slightly lower than the expected 3.0%, and the market reacted to this with a small correction. This phenomenon may be interpreted as the end of the good news, or the main funds seeking opportunities to smash the market. However, no matter how the market fluctuates, it is important to maintain a balanced strategy so that investors do not need to worry too much about short-term market fluctuations.

Next, the market focus turned to the core CPI data, which met the expected 3.2%, while the ordinary CPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The release of these data may have an impact on the September FOMC meeting. At present, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 18 has increased to 56.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has dropped to 43.5%, but the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting is almost 100%.

In addition, the market's expectations for November show that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is the highest, reaching 48.2%. By the end of the year, the market generally expects a 100 basis point rate cut, which indicates that in the remaining months of 2024, with the convening of three FOMC meetings, the market expects a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts.

It is worth noting that despite the market's general expectation of rate cuts, there is still a view that the market may fall after the rate cut. However, historical data shows that interest rate changes in the United States are closely related to the trend of Bitcoin. Since the birth of Bitcoin, the Federal Reserve has maintained ultra-low interest rates, around 0.25%. When interest rates rose in 2015, Bitcoin was initially unaffected, but as time went on, interest rates rose and Bitcoin prices fell. On the contrary, after the interest rate cuts began in 2019, Bitcoin prices began to rise.