On Wednesday, the U.S. released data showing:

The annual rate of CPI in July was 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.00% and lower than the previous value of 3.00%. The annual rate of core CPI in July was 3.2%, in line with the expected value of 3.20% and lower than the previous value of 3.30%. The US CPI fell to 2.9%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, and it was the first time to return to the "2-digit" since March 2021. The market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting is 56.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 43.5%.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the interest rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, the first rate cut since March 2020, and the Fed also started an easing cycle much earlier than previously expected. MUFG MSS, a joint venture of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, plans to issue digital securities this year. Bloomberg reported that one of the most watched legal cases in the cryptocurrency field made important progress last week, with the court ruling that RippleLabs Inc. pay a $125 million civil penalty because the company sold its tokens to institutional investors without registering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fine is only a small part of the $2 billion the agency was seeking, which may be good news for other crypto companies involved in lawsuits with the SEC Musk's AI company xAI announced the launch of an early preview version of Grok-2, which has chat, coding and reasoning capabilities. On August 13, the US TC spot ETF had a net inflow of $39 million; the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $25 million. QCP Capital said that the skewness of BTC put options has recovered significantly from -25% during the panic to -5% before the wash, but the market remains cautious in the short term. BlackRock (ETF) continues to achieve positive inflows. It is expected that US investors will continue to provide liquidity and support. Macro factors remain key to the crypto market. Glassnode said that as the market began to gradually recover from last week's sell-off, investors showed uncertainty and indecision. Since the BTC price hit a record high in March, the market has experienced a period of extensive supply distribution. In the past few weeks, this trend has shown early signs of reversal, especially the largest wallets associated with ETFs, which seem to be returning to a state of hoarding. Matrixport said that since March 2024, BTC spot ETF buyers have strictly implemented the strategy of buying on dips and waiting at high levels. With the start of the 13F quarterly reporting period, funds with more than US$100 million in US stock investments will begin to disclose information. It may be found that more US funds and asset management companies increased their holdings of BTC ETFs in the second quarter, which may boost the confidence of institutional investors.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that the US BTC spot ETF is expected to surpass Satoshi Nakamoto in October to become the largest entity holding BTC. The ETF product launched by BlackRock alone is already the third largest holder of BTC, and is expected to become the largest holder by the end of next year, and is likely to maintain this position for a long time. On Wednesday, the US released data showing that the annual rate of CPI in July was 2.9%, lower than the expected value of 3.00% and lower than the previous value of 3.00%. The annual rate of core CPI in July was 3.2%, in line with the expected value of 3.20%, lower than the previous value of 3.30%. The US CPI fell to 2.9%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, the first time it has returned to the "2-digit" since March 2021, and the market expected it to be 3%. The annual rate of core CPI was 3.2%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, the lowest level since April 2021. Traders believe that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting is 56.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 43.5%. As for the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of strategy at TD Securities, believes that the only surprise in the CPI report is that rents (housing costs) are accelerating, which is why the market reaction is somewhat disappointing. For the market, the biggest question will be whether to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points, which will be determined in the next few weeks. Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece", said that the July CPI data cleared the way for the Fed to start cutting interest rates at the next meeting. The labor market has recently shown signs of potential weakness. The debate at the Fed's September meeting will focus on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the traditional way or by a larger 50 basis points. Macquarie economist David Doyle said that the July report provided more evidence that the trend of cooling inflation is still intact, and it should provide more evidence for the Fed. Nothing can stop the Fed from cutting interest rates in September. Nigel Green, an analyst at deVere Group, said that the signal of a 50 basis point rate cut would show that the Fed is serious about guiding the US economy away from the brink of recession. On August 13, Tether issued an additional $1 billion in stablecoins. The weekly fund flow of spot ETH ETF achieved positive growth for the first time, with a net inflow of 31,500 ETH last week, mainly driven by BlackRock, which purchased a total of US$168.55 million worth of ETH.

According to the 13F holdings document submitted by Goldman Sachs Group on the official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Goldman Sachs Group held more than $410 million in BTC spot ETFs as of the second quarter. The venture capital department of Chicago DRW Holdings disclosed that the total value of its cryptocurrency ETFs currently exceeds $195 million, of which more than $150 million is Grayscale ETHE. K33 Research said that the number of BTC held by the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund has increased to 2,446, and the increase in indirect holdings mainly comes from the increase in stock holdings in crypto companies. The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. On August 13, Cumberland sent 141.5 million stablecoins to the centralized platform. In the past eight days, the address has sent 1.04 billion stablecoins to the cryptocurrency market. On August 15, the address marked as "U.S. Government" sent 10,000 BTC to the Coinbase Prime address. In the past 24 hours, the address marked as MtGox transferred out 33,100 BTC, of ​​which 33,023 BTC were transferred to the new address of bc1qpn, and 117 BTC were transferred to the centralized platform. The market speculates that the address interacting with MtGox may belong to Bitgo, which is the fifth and last platform to cooperate with the MtGox trustee to distribute funds to creditors, and may repay creditors. At present, there is still BTC worth $1.95 billion in the MtGox address. After a decade of running, the repayment of Mt.Gox creditors may be nearing the end. On Wednesday, both good and bad news appeared (Bitcoin pinned 61,800-58,700 US dollars). While inflation CPI fell, the address marked as the US government was selling and MtGox continued to pay creditors. With inflation below the psychological threshold of 3%, the impact of MtGox has decreased, and Bitcoin has rebounded to $60,000. The sale of US addresses has suppressed market sentiment, and Bitcoin has not yet escaped the embarrassing period. Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting next week and may provide more information on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in mid-September. Hopefully, this will provide momentum for Bitcoin to break the current awkward period. #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期 #美联储何时降息？