The previous value of this CPI was 3%, and the market expectation was also 3%.

The previous value of the core CPI was 3.3%, and the market expectation was 3.2%.

The market expectations for these two data are not much different from the previous values. This is the most likely to be a surprise, because a slight change can cause an uproar, especially it will directly affect whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once or twice in September.

Personally, I think the probability of good news is very high, because I don’t see any reason why the CPI can continue to rise.

Whether it is the high interest rate or the recent increase in unemployment or the decline in the manufacturing index, these are all strong signals of economic cooling, so this inflation data is likely to be good or at least in line with expectations.