Last week, affected by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy, the Japanese stock market plummeted and rebounded sharply the next day. This drastic fluctuation triggered a chain reaction of fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin once fell by more than 25%, making many people wonder whether it has fallen into a bear market.
According to the market data of Bijie.com, Bitcoin fell below $58,000 yesterday, and the lowest price fell to $57,596. However, Bitcoin did not continue to fall, and the current price (at 16:00 on August 13) has rebounded to $59,170. In the short term, Bitcoin cannot rule out the possibility of falling to $53,000 again, and then it may rebound. If there is major good news in the near future, Bitcoin is expected to directly break through $62,000 and challenge the historical high of $70,000 again.
From a technical perspective, the formation of a doji candlestick chart in the weekly Bitcoin market, accompanied by rising trading volume as Bitcoin approaches the trendline under the bull flag pattern, indicates that the market's confidence in a price rebound is increasing. This may indicate that by September, Bitcoin will have a chance to rebound to the upper trendline of the flag, around $66,500.
BTC weekly candlestick chart from TradingView
Since the bull flag is often seen as a bullish continuation pattern, a strong close above the upper trendline of the flag could trigger a new uptrend. Based on technical analysis, prices could rise to a height comparable to the previous uptrend. The combination of the bull flag, the doji candlestick, and the bullish divergence signals could push Bitcoin prices above all-time highs in the coming months.
The number of addresses with more than 1 BTC has exceeded 1 million, and whales are hoarding Bitcoin again
Currently, the number of addresses holding more than one bitcoin has exceeded 1 million. This data shows that the confidence of bitcoin holders is gradually increasing. In the first half of the year, the strategy of Bitcoin can be summarized as "building high walls and storing large amounts of food", waiting for the arrival of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and looking forward to the explosion of the market in the second half of the year, so that all investors can return with full loads.
At the same time, Bitcoin whales (i.e. large holders of large amounts of Bitcoin) have also begun to hoard Bitcoin again, further supporting Bitcoin's bullish reversal signal.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges at the highest rate since 2015. In the past 30 days, about 73,350 BTC have flowed out of the exchange balances of these whales.
Bitcoin whale trading volume to and from exchanges net position changes, source: Glassnode
The market generally views this surge in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges as a bullish sign because it means investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long term rather than sell it for other cryptocurrencies or fiat currencies.
It is worth noting that the last time Bitcoin whales withdrew a large amount of Bitcoin from exchanges was in 2015, when the price of Bitcoin was around $220. Subsequently, Bitcoin ushered in a massive bull run, which eventually pushed the price to $20,000 in December 2017. This historical trend may be repeating itself, bringing more optimistic expectations to the Bitcoin market in the coming months.
Arthur Hayes: BTC needs to break through 70,000 and ETH needs to break through 4,000 to usher in the alt season
On August 13, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post that as U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen plans to inject market liquidity by issuing $301 billion to $1.05 trillion in Treasury bills, a strong bull market, including cryptocurrencies, may be ushered in before the end of this year.
Hayes predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound quickly and could reach $100,000 by the end of the year, noting that the altcoin market will not become active again until Bitcoin and Ethereum prices break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.
Arthur Hayes suggested starting to invest in crypto assets in September and planning to partially cash out when the market rebounds and transfer funds to more stable investments to cope with the uncertainty of the US election. Hayes also predicted that driven by the economic stimulus policies of China and the United States in 2025, a new round of crypto bull market will come and may push the price of Bitcoin to the target of $1 million.
Altcoins are typically more volatile than Bitcoin, but in this cycle, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been supported by structural buying in their U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have pulled back since April, they have escaped the severe declines in the altcoin market.
The alt season will only return once Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $70,000 and $4,000 respectively. Solana’s price could also exceed $250, but given its relative market cap, its rise will have less impact on the overall market than Bitcoin and Ethereum. As USD liquidity drives a rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum at the end of the year, it will lay the foundation for the return of the altcoin market.
