šMarket Focus: Tomorrow's core CPI data is about to be released, are you ready?
š Attention, all market investors! Tomorrow's CPI data may become a weather vane for the market. The current forecast is 3.2%, but if the actual data tomorrow is lower than this, we may usher in the first inflation rate below 3% in many years, which is definitely good news for the market!
š” Currently, the forecast value of core CPI has also dropped to 3.2%. If the final data tomorrow is better than expected, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts may increase.
šCurrent Fed observation data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 47.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 52.5%. In other words, the expectation of a rate cut in September is 97%, it's just a matter of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Therefore, if the CPI data released tomorrow is better than expected, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September may increase greatly!
š£ļøThe view is that if the CPI data is lower than expected, it will not only boost market confidence, but may also affect the Fed's decision-making, making a larger interest rate cut possible. For investors, this may be a positive signal that the economic situation may not be as bad as previously expected. However, we also need to be wary of the short-term market volatility that the data may bring.
š¬ So, here comes the question! What do you think of tomorrow's CPI data? How do you think this will affect expectations for a rate cut in September? If the rate is cut by 50 basis points, how do you think the market will react?
š¤ Share your insights and predictions in the comment section, and let's explore the potential impact of CPI data on the market!
