#CPIDataForecast The only one on the Internet. There is a prediction at the end of the article
First, let me explain last night’s PPI and tonight’s CPI data:
Producer Price Index PPI (Producer Price Index) is an indicator that measures the changes in the average price level of products when they leave the factory.
Consumer Price Index CPI (Consumer Price Index), or consumer price index, is an indicator that measures the change in the average price paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services;
The two are usually positively correlated and together with PCE serve as important indicators of inflation.
Last night#PPI数据 Slightly down, US stocks, gold strengthened, BTC prices rose but slightly weak. Some friends may ask why the decline in PPI data was not interpreted by the market as an economic recession. I summarized the following three points:
The sharp drop in #非农数据 alone does not directly reflect the economic recession. The sharp drop is more due to the combination of Buffett's reduction of Apple holdings and Japan's announcement of an interest rate hike, which caused retail investors to panic and institutions to take advantage of the trend. As for why Japan's interest rate hike led to the decline of US stocks and BTC, I will talk about this later if you are interested.
The#PCEdata on July 26 actually reflects that consumption power has not decreased, so the slight decrease in PPI only reflects that inflation is landing steadily, not vertically.
Looking back at the PPI data of the past few months, it has only returned to normal levels, which is not enough to support the conclusion of economic recession.
As mentioned above, #PPI数据 and #CPI数据 are usually positively correlated, so it is highly likely that tonight's CPI data will be slightly lower than expected or equal to expectations (3.0). However, unlike PPI, if CPI=2.9 is lower than expected, I think the market may interpret it as an economic recession:
CPI more directly reflects consumer power. Price declines are often caused by consumer power driving down production costs. A decline in consumer power can more directly reflect an economic downturn. 2. CPI data has been declining for the past three months. Another decline cannot seem to be explained by a smooth landing.
The strange trend of sol chain last night, which followed the decline but not the rise, and the fact that exchanges did not increase their positions in BTC and ETH in the recent rebound, especially the large-scale shipments on August 9, means that institutions do not recognize the current rebound, but retail investors are boiling, and institutions are still pessimistic and ready to dump the market at any time. Therefore, the possible situation is that retail investors will pull up to 63 or even 64, institutions will sell, retail investors will be liquidated, and then the square will be full of bears, leading everyone to be cut again. However, this script is somewhat conspiracy theory, and I hope it will not happen.
On the contrary, I am more optimistic about the situation of#CPI= 3.1, which is slightly higher than expected. The expectation of interest rate cut is reduced, and retail investors panic sell briefly, but the economic recession is broken without warning, and institutions buy at the bottom, and the market really starts to enter the upward channel (but it still depends on the retail and unemployment data on Thursday)
Of course, the most likely scenario is#CPI= 3.0, which retail investors should interpret as positive, while institutions continue to wait for tomorrow's retail data. BTC rises and converges to around 63.
Of course, the#CPImonthly rate is also very important. The expectation is 2.0, and it is also possible that the data given is opposite to the annual rate. This makes it complicated, and it is impossible to interpret how the market will go. However, I think in terms of impact, the CPI monthly rate>CPI annual rate, so I will not go into details here.
Finally, let me give you my opinion:
1. In terms of impact, monthly rate > annual rate
2. The impact of retail sales and unemployment data on Thursday is greater than that of CPI data on Wednesday. It is possible that the price will not break through either side and will continue to be in the range of 58 to 62. A small positive will be 61, and a small negative will be 585.
3. Slightly lower than expected, retail investors pull the market to 63 or even 64, institutions dump the market (50% probability of dumping the market), it is recommended to reduce long positions by half after taking a wave, and do not open short positions yet
4. Slightly higher than expected, retail investors panic selling, seeing around 56, institutions take the lead in bottom-fishing, and enter the upward track (but still depends on Thursday's retail data and unemployment benefits. If it shows 3.1 and the trend is in line with my expectations, I will look ahead to the retail and unemployment data tomorrow)
5. Significantly higher than expected or significantly lower than expected, start smashing and see who runs faster
6. The maximum probability is equal to the expectation, rising and converging to around 63
🙊It’s not easy to output. If you see this, please follow and like it. If there is still no traffic, I may not continue later.
🤔Is it possible that this article was targeted because of the sudden increase in traffic, and the script turned out to be the opposite of what I wanted?🤔 Then I'll accept it hehe
