1. What do you think of the current real estate market?
I have been following real estate, but I am not a real estate expert. However, I think you don't need professional knowledge for this, you only need common sense to judge the general trend.
Recognizing this trend can at least allow ordinary people like us to keep a clear head and stay calm when we prepare to invest large sums of money in real estate, and avoid making mistakes that will ruin our lives.
I am very cautious about the real estate market in mainland China at present and in the future. I think the overall market will continue to decline for a while, and only a few first-tier cities and quasi-first-tier cities will be able to stabilize in the end.
Among these cities where housing prices will eventually stabilize, only houses in core areas and core locations have hope, while other areas are average.
Finally, the most important thing is that the public's confidence must be fully restored before the overall situation can improve. I don't know when the confidence will be restored.
2. In the investment market, "junk time" is particularly vivid. Take Bitcoin as an example. Most of the gains are concentrated in a few months, and the gains in those months are concentrated in a few days. All the waiting is only for the most critical ten days.
I agree with this statement 100 percent.
In addition to thinking that this statement is very accurate, I also think that there is another point that is also very important but has been overlooked by many people, which is that we cannot accurately judge when these important months and the most critical dozen days begin and end.
That is why I have repeatedly emphasized: ordinary investors (except geniuses) should not guess where the bottom and the top are.
But what if we can’t guess where the bottom and the top are, but we want to catch this wave?
Then we can only use an approximate range to cover the "bottom" and "top" - this is the core of fixed investment and fixed selling.
In fact, this is a universal law not only in the crypto world, but also in the traditional investment world.
Moreover, the interpretation of this law in the traditional investment world is much more cruel than in the crypto world.
What does this mean?
In the crypto ecosystem, at least so far, we have experienced several major bull and bear markets with a cycle of 4 years. That is to say, in the past market conditions, we can basically capture the important months and key days every 4 years of patience.
The traditional investment market requires investors to lie dormant for 10, 15, 20 years or even longer to capture the important months and critical days.
Therefore, for ordinary people, if they are not willing to wait patiently for the short 4 years of the crypto ecosystem, I really can’t see any other ecosystem that can have such an opportunity.
Therefore, it is a great fortune and opportunity for every retail investor to be able to plan our wealth growth path in the crypto ecosystem with a cycle of every 4 years.
We must cherish it.
But will this four-year cycle continue?
I am very skeptical, I think it will fail one day, but I don't know when it will fail. So I said that I will definitely keep at least 20% of the position and never sell it just to prevent that day from coming.
It is precisely because the bull-bear cycle transition in the traditional investment world is so long that there are so many people there obsessed with short-term trading.
Because many people don’t want to wait, are unwilling to wait, and can’t afford to wait.
But what is the actual effect?
Still, the vast majority of people who engage in short-term trading cannot gain wealth. This rule also applies to the crypto world.
Sometimes I think: One of my many fortunes is also very important - that is, before I entered the crypto ecosystem, I had proved through practice in the traditional field that I was not suitable for short-term trading.
With this lesson in mind, when I enter the crypto ecosystem again, I can calmly reject the temptation of short-term trading and directly engage in medium- and long-term investments.
