The current macro situation can be described as turbulent! The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, and the tense external environment has become a key factor in the uncertainty of capital market funds. Now, let us delve into the hidden crises and unexpected black swan events around the world.
First of all, the situation in the Middle East has suddenly heated up. Many parties have confirmed that Iran's attack on Israel is imminent. Even White House officials have declared that they are ready for a major attack that Iran may launch this week. What's more, Fitch actually downgraded Israel's rating from A+ to A.
Furthermore, the tensions in the Russo-Ukrainian war have intensified. Shockingly, Ukraine has invaded Russia and occupied nearly 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, with as many as 28 towns and villages falling under Ukrainian control. Putin decisively ordered the Minister of Defense to drive the enemy out of Russian territory. The scale of the war is very likely to further escalate, and the terrible situation of using nuclear weapons is not even ruled out.
Moreover, in the polymarket, Trump has been surpassed by Harris, who has taken the lead in three crucial battleground states. Now it seems that the attack on Trump happened too early. At the moment, the market is racking its brains to think about what a Harris trade is, but for us, it doesn’t really matter what a Harris trade is, just because the logic of a non-Trump trade means negative.
