Daily Summary:
BTC spot ETF had a large outflow last week, and WBTC is facing a crisis of community trust
According to Farside Investor data, the overall net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs last Friday was nearly $90 million. Among them, Grayscale GBTC had an outflow of $77 million, and BlackRock IBIT had a small inflow of $9.6 million. Last week, the overall funds were in a state of large outflows.
Last Friday, the Ethereum ETF had an overall net outflow of nearly $16 million, and the outflow has been significantly reduced. Last week, the Ethereum ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $104.8 million, and the overall trading volume was still small.
MakerDAO plans to reduce the size of WBTC collateral to deal with potential risks of custody changes
According to on-chain data monitoring, WBTC currently supports Ethereum / Base / Kave / Osmosis / Tron networks, of which Ethereum mainnet casting accounts for as high as 99.8%. As of today, 154,726 WBTC (worth $9.45 billion) have been minted, accounting for 0.78% of the total market value of Bitcoin. According to Dune panel data, more than 41% of WBTC is currently used in the lending ecosystem, of which the largest usage scenario (acceptor) is MakerDAO, and nearly 32% is used for direct transactions. MakerDAO plans to initiate a proposal to "reduce the size of WBTC collateral" in the executive vote on August 12.
Fed Governor Bowman: Labor market cooling is exaggerated, remain cautious about rate cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said inflation remains "uncomfortably" above target. There are upside risks to inflation and continued strength in the labor market, suggesting she may not be ready to support a rate cut at the next meeting of U.S. central bankers in September. She said the progress made in reducing inflation in May and June was welcome, but inflation remains above the committee's 2% target, which is disturbing, and I will remain cautious when considering adjusting the current policy stance. She also said that U.S. fiscal policy, pressure on the housing market from immigration, and geopolitical risks could all put upward pressure on house prices, and that the recent jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% may exaggerate the extent of the cooling of the labor market.
Opinion: Crypto VCs are slowing down their investment pace. Holding BTC/ETH can generate considerable returns, and the lack of new narratives is the key reason
Adam Cochran, partner of Cinneamhain Ventures, posted on social media that there is a subtle reason why venture capital firms have slowed down their investment in cryptocurrencies significantly. Most venture capital firms have limited partners (LPs), and LPs are mainly interested in outperforming index fund returns. But in the medium term, the risk-return ratio of just holding Bitcoin and Ethereum can "easily beat" index funds.
This allows venture investors to stay on the sidelines of Bitcoin and Ethereum, waiting for safer and more profitable opportunities, rather than taking as much early risk on startups as they would in other industries, because there are no assets in other markets that offer the same holding yield as BTC or ETH.
Adam Cochran said that during the last crypto cycle (2020-2024), venture capital firms "seemed to be very active", hoping to get rich with participants by investing in "already-exploded" applications. However, several known narratives (NFTS, AMM forks, defi, L2s) have come to an end, and it is not clear what to do next.
Market Analysis
Market Trends
BTC: After a sharp rebound last week, Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to a downward trend. This morning, BTC fell below $58,500, and the current market sentiment is relatively depressed. It is worth noting that the net outflow of BTC spot ETFs in August was large, which may be an important factor leading to the price correction.
ETH: Ethereum has fallen all the way after rebounding to $2,700 and is currently hovering around $2,550, returning to the price level at the beginning of this year. The decline of ETH also reflects the lack of strong upward momentum in the overall market.
Altcoins: generally fell, and no obvious hot sectors emerged. The overall market sentiment was relatively low, and investors lacked confidence.
Data indicators
AHR999 Index: Today's AHR999 Index is 0.66, indicating that the current price is still a good point for buying in batches.
Fear and Greed Index: The current fear and greed index is 25, indicating that market sentiment is still in a relatively depressed state.
Market Hotspots
Solana Ecosystem: SOL rebounded from a low of $110 to above $160 last week, but then fell sharply on Sunday, once falling to $141. Solana Ecosystem tokens are also no longer strong. Tokens such as POPCAT and WIF, which had rebounded sharply before, fell sharply from their rebound highs. It is rumored that Jump Crypto is the big money behind SOL. If Jump Crypto withdraws from the cryptocurrency field, it may bring more impact to SOL.
BTC Ecosystem: WBTC, the largest packaged Bitcoin on the Ethereum chain, had a major event update over the weekend. It was suspected to be taken over by a company controlled by Justin Sun, causing distrust in the community. At the same time, the Threshold Network token T, which issued the fully decentralized packaged Bitcoin tBTC, saw a sharp rise, and the current price has fallen. It is worth noting that the historical issuance of WBTC exceeds 150,000.
Public chain Sui: SUI rebounded more than 100% from last week's low, becoming the best performing public chain token last week. In terms of news, SUI's rise benefited from the SUI Trust launched by Grayscale. In addition, SUI will usher in $60 million in token unlocking on September 1, which may have a further impact on the price.
Macroeconomics: Risk asset markets such as US stocks await CPI data on Wednesday
Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% at 5,344.16 points, the Dow Jones up 0.13% at 39,497.54 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.51% at 16,745.30 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 3.94%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 4.05%.
Among the popular US stocks, Apple rose 1.37%, Microsoft rose 0.83%, Nvidia fell 0.21%, Google C rose 0.95%, Google A rose 1.01%, Amazon rose 0.69%, Meta rose 1.60%, TSMC rose 1.56%, Tesla rose 0.58%, and AMD fell 1.50%.
Some wild moves in the market last week sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of price swings in the S&P 500 (SPX), to its highest level since the height of the pandemic in 2020. Based on put-call parity, traders expect the S&P 500 to move 1.2% in either direction when the CPI data is released on Wednesday, according to Citigroup.
Summarize
In general, BTC and ETH have returned to a downward trend, and the overall market sentiment is relatively depressed. Although the AHR999 index and the fear and greed index show that the current is a good buying point in batches, investors still need to operate with caution and pay attention to the further trend of the market.
The turbulence of the Solana ecosystem and the BTC ecosystem, as well as the strong performance of the public chain Sui, show the shift and fluctuation of market hotspots. In the future, the market may continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors and policy changes. Before the release of the US CPI data on Wednesday, users are advised to wait and see.
