Possible Bitcoin price drop to $52K rises as BTC derivatives data shows traders losing hope
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Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant volatility spike on Aug. 12, initially dropping 3.2% in less than an hour to $57,844 before rebounding by 5% to reach $60,700 within the next thirty minutes.
This price swing reflects the uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions, particularly following remarks from a United States Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor over the weekend. These remarks also led to gold prices surging to $2,458, just 1% below its all-time high.
Economic downturn is the biggest risk for a Bitcoin price crashTraders are now questioning whether Bitcoin might retest the $49,248 low from Aug. 5, especially given the declining interest in leveraged BTC longs and the increasing risk of a correction in the global stock market.
JPMorgan economists have raised the probability of a US economic recession in 2024 to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 25%. The report, according to Bloomberg, cited weak labor market conditions and a restrictive Fed policy as key factors.On Aug. 10, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that inflation risks persist and the labor market remains weak, which reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
Investors are now in a holding pattern, awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index on Aug. 13 and the Consumer Price Index on Aug. 14. These data points are expected to provide clues on whether the Fed will meet market expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.
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