The trend over the weekend was relatively flat. $BTC fluctuated sideways in a narrow range between 60,000 and 61,000 for most of the time. After falling below 60,000 points at 2 a.m., it was confirmed that it would go down for a period of 1 hour. The current price is 58,400.
Some time points that will have a major impact on the currency circle this week are shown in the figure below. The most important one is that the US will release the July CPI data at 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, the 14th. This data will basically determine whether the Federal Reserve will start the first interest rate cut in September. It is expected that it will cause a large fluctuation in the trend of the currency circle in the short term. Contract traders must prepare for it in advance. Judging from all aspects of information, the start of interest rate cuts in September is almost a foregone conclusion. The key is whether the first interest rate cut is 25 or 50 basis points. The CPI data released on the evening of the 14th has become the key point of the US interest rate decision. This account believes that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is very high.
After the US has confirmed the start of the interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion cycle, the impact on the cryptocurrency circle will increase the intensity of the long-short game in the short term. In the long run, the latest round of quantitative easing will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the currency price, laying the foundation for the upcoming bull market.
After Bitcoin and ETH hit a rebound high on Friday morning, they failed to break through the high again over the weekend. Short-term shorts counterattacked again, and short-term bargaining chips were gradually profited, pushing Bitcoin prices back below 60,000 points. From a structural point of view, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both 1-hour level without a new high upward section, and the internal small turn to large causes a 1-hour downward increase. If there was no position on the day of the previous plunge, the hourly level second buy is a good opportunity to get on board again, and the buying point appears in batches at the sub-level or sub-sub-level.
Rapid callback needs to be corrected. Today's focus is on $BTC 60500-59700, and below is 57200-56600
