Ethereum's recent strength has aroused market attention to its future trend. The current market situation and some key factors deserve careful analysis to better judge whether this is a short-term rebound or the real start of the bull market.
1. Market sentiment and positions
Excessive long positions: From the liquidation chart, Ethereum's long positions are currently heavy, showing that a large number of retail investors are confident in the future of Ethereum. Many investors use contract leverage to make arrangements, hoping to achieve rapid growth of funds with the help of Ethereum's rise. This phenomenon often leads to a deeper decline in Ethereum than Bitcoin when the market is corrected, because high-leverage long positions are prone to liquidation, leading to further price declines.
2. ETF impact and Grayscale selling pressure
Ethereum ETF: Since the launch of Ethereum ETF, the market has responded positively. Although there was some selling pressure in the early stage, as Grayscale's selling gradually weakens, market sentiment may gradually turn to positive inflows. If the inflow of funds to Ethereum ETF continues to increase in the next few weeks, it will be beneficial to the entire market, especially the altcoin market.
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3. Prague upgrade at the end of the year
Upgrade expectations: The Prague upgrade plan is an important technical update for the Ethereum network, and the market is paying close attention to it. However, the upgrade date has not yet been determined. Once the upgrade date is determined and the market has positive expectations for the upgrade, Ethereum may further strengthen as a result. Such technical upgrades often trigger an increase in market demand for Ethereum, driving up prices.
4. Technical and fundamental analysis
Technical level: If the price of Ethereum can stabilize above the key support level and gradually break through the recent resistance level, this will provide technical support for further gains. On the contrary, if there is a larger correction, it may mean that the current rise is just a short-term rebound. Fundamental factors: With the continued development of blockchain technology and the expansion of Ethereum's application in DeFi, NFT and real-world asset tokenization (RWA), Ethereum's fundamentals continue to improve. These factors have formed a strong support for the long-term value of Ethereum.
At present, the strength of Ethereum is more the result of the combined effect of multiple market factors, including the bullish sentiment of retail investors, the market reaction after the launch of ETFs, and the expectation of technological upgrades. Whether it is the real start of the bull market, it is necessary to further observe the sustainability of the market and the ability to break through key resistance levels. If these factors can develop steadily and the market as a whole remains optimistic, then Ethereum is expected to enter a longer-term upward cycle.
