Have you heard? There is a big commotion in the United States again. The rumors of interest rate cuts are even more violent than a summer thunderstorm! Citibank traders frowned. They felt that the risk of US stocks was like a balloon. The more it was blown, the bigger it would be. It might "pop" at any time. The Federal Reserve might make an emergency interest rate cut within a week!
However, there are also conservative leaders, such as Morgan and Goldman Sachs, who also predicted a rate cut, but their pace seemed much more stable. Morgan said: "Let's take it slow, in September and November, cut 50 basis points each time, and proceed steadily." Goldman Sachs was more direct, raising the probability of a US recession next year from 15% to 25%. This number jumps and makes people feel anxious.
But then again, as an observer, I think that the United States will cut interest rates in advance? This is uncertain! After all, cutting interest rates is a "sweet poison" for the United States. Who would be willing to take it easily if they can delay it? Moreover, cutting interest rates at this time is equivalent to opening the tap for China in advance, isn't it? The Americans are smart, this deal is not worth it!
But there is one thing that everyone should pay attention to. Once the US cuts interest rates, the US stock market may have to "cool down". Look at Mr. Buffett, he has already liquidated $88 billion of Apple and sold off Bank of America shares. He has $270 billion in cash in his hands, just waiting for that "epic crash"!
When the Fed raises interest rates, the U.S. stock market is happy; when the Fed cuts interest rates, the market has to be prepared to cry. Why? Because a rate cut means that the U.S. economy is about to collapse, so how good can the stock market be?
Now, American traders have also begun to waver. When the non-agricultural data came out before, everyone rushed to buy US Treasury bonds, but now they are starting to withdraw. It seems that even they think that the interest rate cut may not be so radical.
My opinion is:
1. The United States will cut interest rates, but the first cut may be a gentle 25 basis points.
2. They will try to delay the time as much as possible. After all, it is poison and the later the better.
3. When lowering interest rates, the United States may do some "small moves", such as preventing money from slipping out so easily, and it may even check the assets of wealthy overseas people to subsidize their household expenses.
As for our A-shares, the interest rate cut is certainly a good thing, but don't expect a flood of funds to pour in immediately. Looking at the performance of the Nikkei and the yen in the past few days, A-shares should go their own way and let others talk!
Sector Analysis:
Although A-shares are still hovering around 2,900 points, don't be afraid, the "medicine" I have on hand has begun to bubble up! In the pharmaceutical sector, not only A-shares have a chance, but Hong Kong stocks' Hang Seng Pharmaceuticals is also a treasure. The valuation is low, the decline is large, and the bottom consolidation time is still long. Historical data shows that once it rises, the amplitude is great! Of course, it is also clear when it falls, so you still need to have this risk awareness.
All we can do now is to wait patiently. The risk at 2900 points is definitely milder than at 3000 points, right? Confidence is something that only grows stronger with each setback, right?
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