🔍 1. When to BUY?
- Current Support: $BTC has recently rebounded from $49,640, which serves as a critical support level in higher timeframes.
- Accumulation Zone: The ideal entry point for accumulation is around $54,500. This level presents a strong opportunity to enter before a potential rally.
- Expected Trading Range: In the upcoming weeks, anticipate Bitcoin to trade within a range of $54,500 to $60,700. This range will likely offer opportunities for short-term gains.
- Potential Breakout: A break above $60,700 could signal a strong upward momentum for Bitcoin, potentially driving it to new highs.
💡 1.2 Where to BUY?
- Liquidity Insights: Current Bitcoin liquidity indicates that the market has absorbed the recent lows at $48,000.
- Retest Expectations: Instead of revisiting the previous lows, a retest around the $60,000 mark is anticipated, offering a more reliable entry point.
📉 2. Causes of this DUMP
- U.S. Economic Concerns: The recent weak U.S. jobs report has created ripples across global markets. If the economic weakness persists, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts, further impacting market stability.
- Japanese Economic Shift & Yen Carry Trade Unwind:The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to increase interest rates by 0.25% has caused significant disruptions. This rate hike affects the yen carry trade, which has had broad implications for global markets.
- $ETH Sell-Off Fears:Jump Crypto’s recent transfer of 120,000 staked $ETH tokens, valued at approximately $410M, with $191M already moved to exchanges, has raised concerns. This large-scale movement signals potential sell-off pressures in the crypto market.
💥 3. Crypto and Stocks Liquidations
- Market Impact: Over $1 billion was lost in crypto liquidations as the market faced a severe downturn.
- August 5 Crash: The crash in Japan’s stock market on August 5 led to the liquidation of nearly 300,000 crypto traders, highlighting the interconnected nature of global markets.
- Bitcoin’s Decline: Bitcoin’s drop from $65,000 to $50,000 resulted in $315 million in losses for long positions and $62.23 million for short positions, illustrating the intense volatility in the crypto space.
🏦 4. Japan Economy
- Nikkei 225 Drop: Japan’s Nikkei 225 index plunged 12.4%, driven by the unwinding of yen carry trades.
- Investment Strategies: Investors often borrow from countries with low interest rates and weaker currencies, such as Japan, to invest in higher-return markets.
- Market Volatility:The recent financial market volatility was exacerbated by a combination of macroeconomic shocks and already overextended risk assets, worsened by the BOJ’s rate hike.
📈 5. VIX
- Volatility Index: The VIX, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, surged to its highest level since the pandemic.
- Impact of Nikkei’s Drop: The Nikkei’s 12% decline further drove up the VIX, reflecting increased market anxiety and uncertainty.
