1. Price forecast (short-term, medium-term)

Short-term: The price is currently testing the resistance level in the $6.00-$6.50 region. If buyers manage to break through this level, the next target may be the $7.00-$7.50 zone. In case of a downward rebound, a correction to $5.50-$5.00 is possible. Medium-term: If the current levels are broken, we can expect continued growth towards $7.50 and higher. If the price fails to stay above $6.00, a downward movement to $5.00 and lower is likely.

2. Support and resistance levels

Support: $5.50 $5.00 Resistance: $6.50 $7.00-$7.50

3. Entry, exit, stop loss points for a long position

Entry point: Enter long from $5.50 subject to confirmation of a rebound from this level. Exit point: Partial profit-taking at $6.50, further profit-taking at $7.00-$7.50. Stop-loss: Place at $5.00 to minimize risks.

4. Entry, exit, stop loss points for short positions

Entry point: Enter short from $6.50-$7.00 in case of weakness and a rollback from these levels. Exit point: Close the position at $5.50-$5.00. Stop loss: Behind $7.50, as breaking it may lead to continued growth.

5. Long and short scenarios with probability assessment

🟢 Long scenario (60% probability): If the price consolidates above $6.00, growth to $7.00-$7.50 is possible with support from volumes. RSI support also indicates possible further growth. 🛑 Short scenario (40% probability): In case of an unsuccessful attempt to break through $6.50-$7.00, a rollback to $5.50 and below is possible. RSI is in the overbought zone, which may signal an upcoming corrective movement.

On-chain data (impact on price):

Exchange Reserve: The last 7 days show a moderate decrease in exchange reserves, which may signal a decrease in selling pressure. Net Deposits: Moderate capital outflow from exchanges to long-term wallets, which is a bullish signal. Capital Inflow: The last 30 days show consistently high inflows, which supports the price increase. Large Holder Inflow: The last 30 days have seen an increase in large holders' positions. Increase in Active and New Addresses: Gradually increasing activity, which is also a positive signal. Trading Volume: Trading volume is increasing, which may support the current uptrend. TVL Increase/Decrease: An increase in TVL (Total Value Locked) also contributes to the positive sentiment in the market.

⚠️ Overall conclusion: Current technical and on-chain indicators point to possible further growth of TON. It is important to monitor key resistance levels and trading volumes. If $6.50 is broken, growth to $7.50 is possible. If this fails, the price may roll back to $5.50-$5.00.

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