The cryptocurrency market has calmed down temporarily. The pain brought by the 805 black swan

And the bloodshed caused by this black swan made the leeks

I licked my wounds secretly. But the pain seemed to last only one night.

You can no longer see it in the market. All you can see is, hey, did you buy the bottom?

Now when you go out and say hello, it seems that it is not about asking, hey, how are you, have you eaten?

Instead, ask “Did you buy the dip?”

Is everyone so optimistic already?

At least I'm not that optimistic yet.

one,

The culprit for this crypto crash has now been found.

The yen rate hike brought about a liquidity crisis. Because of the failure of carry trade, everyone rushed to flee, causing a stampede.

The global financial market plummeted, and the cryptocurrency circle took advantage of the situation to suffer a bloodbath, clearing out all long leverages.

The dealer certainly doesn't intend to let the old guys make money so easily.

As Japanese stocks have risen again in the past two days, triggering circuit breakers, it seems that the "yen crisis" has been resolved?

I just finished reading the summary of JPMorgan's strategy meeting.

Analysis by JPMorgan Chase shows that the current yen carry trade has only been unwound by about half.

The investment community began to be in an uproar.

JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the yen is still seriously undervalued, so there is further room for carry trades to be unwound.

More importantly, the impact of the yen carry trade is not only on the foreign exchange market, it is also closely related to the global bond market.

Link. As the yen carry trade unwinds, this could trigger volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, which in turn could affect the global interest rate environment.

Therefore, it is easy for us to judge that the carry trade of the Japanese yen will be difficult to return to its previous level in the short term.

Why?

Because the technical damage to the portfolio caused by the sharp market fluctuations will take time to repair.

Translated into human language, it means that the market is too turbulent, and the big institutions and big traders in the market have begun to

Dismantle leverage, dismantle combinations, and dismantle funds.

After the dismantling, there is a pile of cash left. What should I do? Keep it in my hand?

That’s definitely not possible, it all comes at a cost.

We also need to build new portfolios, new funds, and new leverage.

understand?

It takes time to repair the damage, and the market needs to see more structural reconstruction before it can find a new anchor.

And now, it is a process of repair.

two,

I know the above paragraph has a little threshold and may not be very friendly to old leeks.

I just want to know, why are you talking so much?

Just tell me whether I can increase my position and that's it.

When should we add, at what point should we add, will the price go up after adding, and at what price can we sell?

I can only say, sorry.

Brothers, if you go to a roadside stall and ask a fortune teller to do something, don't you have to give him a hundred or eighty yuan?

I am here. First, I don’t tell fortunes, and second, I don’t tell fortunes for free.

I don’t do fortune-telling because in the cryptocurrency community, all fortune-tellers are equivalent to shamans in my eyes.

I don’t like that and I won’t let myself become that kind of person.

Fortune-telling is not free because all free things are actually expensive.

three,

Let’s get back to the topic. Is it possible to increase our position?

Today's market BTC panic greed index has reached 29.

It’s pretty good, at least it’s not extreme panic anymore, but it’s still within the range of panic.

This shows that everyone’s confidence has been restored, but they are still worried.

Now the position of the pie has reached 56000. Do you remember where this position is?

This position is actually the low point reached during the last big drop, which was on May 1st.

So historically, the last low point, in the entire cycle, if you entered

When this cycle is over, your winning rate will be greater than 70%, that is, in 10 times

You have 7 chances to win.

This is viewed from a cyclical perspective.

What if we look at it from a short-term perspective?

My personal judgment is that it is still possible to go back and find out the bottom of the matter.

Why?

Four,

Because the problems of the global capital market have not been completely resolved.

The market will still be very turbulent. As I have analyzed in my previous article, many factors have contributed to this storm.

Some have disappeared, but some are still ongoing.

U.S. stocks closed yesterday, narrowing their losses.

Nasdaq opened down 6.34% and closed down 3.43%

The S&P 500 opened down 4.23% and closed down 3.0%

Judging from the market's reaction, the panic has probably subsided by half.

The market is not completely calm.

As I said before, although there is no economic crisis, the financial market

There is a crisis.

If in the subsequent process, decision makers and traders do the right thing

Or if we do something positive for the market, the crisis may be completely resolved.

But if policymakers, like Japan, don't have the Fed, continue to make the wrong decisions

This could then turn into a self-destructive collapse.

The Federal Reserve’s attitude is very firm!

They just think that there is no crisis and it is not appropriate to cut interest rates.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says Fed won't overreact - he

He has been the most dovish Fed policymaker for quite some time.

Think about it, gentlemen, even the most dovish people have not hinted at a rate cut, which shows the attitude of the Federal Reserve.

So from my perspective, it is not completely confirmed that the turmoil has calmed down.

As for cryptocurrencies, naturally, there is no certainty that peace will be achieved.

five,

Of course, in this crash, we can see a large number of whale addresses

It seems to imply that

49000 is close to the bottom.

I still hold the same view. The bottom created by the 805 crash is

There is a 70% chance that this is the market bottom, and the range of this bottom is 47000~49000

But if there is a black swan-level bloodbath

Let the price come to 38000~42000

I will go all in without hesitation

I am Qiqi, a person who once lost everything in the cryptocurrency circle. I have encountered all the problems you have encountered in the cryptocurrency circle. I hope to help the young leeks on the road grow into big leeks. Welcome to chat with me. #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #MarketDownturn $GFT $WIF