Will $BTC fall again?

The day before yesterday, Bitcoin and SP500 fell at the same time, falling by 7.5% and 3% respectively.

Everyone is terrified, and many people are asking, is there a bear market next, and will there be another big drop?

Let's look at the historical data:

In history, Bitcoin and SP500 have fallen at the same time with such intensity only 8 times.

Two of them occurred before the halving;

In 2020, it fell due to the outbreak of the epidemic. Those who bought at the bottom of these two times received returns of 109% and 375% respectively within 6 months.

The second six times occurred after the halving.

The one in 2018 had a short-term increase, but fell back to its original value six months later. The other 5 times occurred after the top of the cycle, during the bear market in 2022.

The return rate in the next six months after eight big drops:

Based on favorable factors such as interest rate cut expectations, ETFs, elections, and halving, it can be inferred that:

If a black swan event occurs in August/September, and it causes an irreversible deterioration of the global economy.

For example, the start of the S3 competition, the start of a nuclear war, alien invasions, the sinking of Japan, and so on. Then this will be the turning point of the bear market, but it doesn’t matter whether you are short or not, after all, it is unknown whether you can survive.

Or recharge your faith, or increase your position, and make some contributions to the blockchain. After all, that will leave something for the world...

If there is no black swan, the next thing will be bullish, and you will never return to the sea! #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #热门话题